Jetrader - September/October 2013 - 48

appraisal

Boeing 777-F
Tom Burke, Managing Director Valuations
Morten Beyer & Agnew
Tel: 703-276-3200
TBurke@mba.aero

Background

Chart 1

The Boeing 777-Freighter (777-F) was
launched in 2005 with an order from Air
France, and entered service in 2009. The
777-F is based on the same technologies
as the 777-200LR, providing operators with
the capability to haul more than 200,000
pounds of revenue cargo nearly 5,000 nm.
The 777-F provides more capacity and
longer range than any other twin-engine
freighter and is a replacement for the
MD-11F and 747-200F aircraft. It competes
very well with all variants of the 747-400
freighter series.
Chart 1, illustrating the principal characteristics of the 777-F along with some
comparable freighter aircraft, shows the
777-F falls just below the 777-400ERF
in both range and payload. Given the
signiﬁcantly lower operating costs of the
777-F, it is clearly a major player in the
high-capacity, long-range cargo market.

Principal Characteristics of Boeing 777-F and Comparable Freighters
777-F

747-8F

747747MD-11F
400ERF 400BCF

Max Takeoff Weight (lbs)

766,000

975,000

910,000

870,000

602,500

Max Zero Fuel Weight

547,000

719,000

611,000

610,000

451,300

Maximum Payload

226,800

295,200

249,400

237,650

202,733

Max Payload Range (nm)

4,900

4,390

4,980

4,100

3,910

Source: Boeing 2009-2010 Commercial Airplanes Reference Guide

Chart 2
smaller carriers. There is a wide dispersion
of operators in North America, Europe,
Middle East and Asia. The combination
of more operators over more areas has a
positive impact on residual values.

Boeing 777F Aircraft
Current Fleet by Operator
% of
In
Service Total
Operator
FedEx

23

30.7%

AeroLogic (Germany)

8

10.7%

Emirates Airline
China Southern
Airlines

8

10.7%

6

8.0%

China Cargo Airlines

6

8.0%

Current Market

LAN Cargo

4

5.3%

As shown in Chart 2, there are currently
75 active aircraft and 13 operators of the
aircraft worldwide. While FedEx dominates
as the major user, the signiﬁcant number
of operators bodes well for the residual
values of the 777-F.
At this time, the 777-F does not quite
hold signiﬁcant market mass. As a major
investment, the aircraft is currently in
service with major carriers, leaving the
older MD-11F as a viable alternative for the

Qatar Airways

4

5.3%

Outlook

Southern Air (USA)

4

5.3%

Korean Air

3

4.0%

TNT Airways SA

3

4.0%

Air France

2

2.7%

Ethiopian Airlines

2

2.7%

Etihad Airways

2

2.7%

Total

75

The value of the 777-F has returned
to its pre-recession levels despite the
unstable freighter market. It has proven to
be a popular freighter aircraft, and values
will remain stable as the airfreight market
slowly recovers from its current downturn.
Commonality of the 777-F with 777 passenger family makes this a very attractive
freighter for larger carriers and seems to
have been one factor in the recent decline
of residual values of comparable aircraft.
As there is no competitor in the current
market or in the planning stages as a viable
option in the 100-ton class freighter, we
expect values, shown in Chart 3, to remain
strong for the foreseeable future.

100.0%

Source: ACAS April 2013

Chart 3
Boeing 777-F
Year of Mfg

CMV

BV

 

2013

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2009

137.63

141.89

137.24

131.04

123.5

114.92

105.57

95.73

85.70

75.74

66.08

56.91

2010

143.16

146.45

142.55

137.00

129.97

121.71

112.53

102.71

92.54

82.30

72.27

62.65

2011

148.89

151.16

147.15

141.41

134.15

125.63

116.15

106.01

95.52

84.97

74.60

64.67

2012

155.65

156.82

152.66

146.71

139.18

130.33

120.50

109.98

99.09

88.13

77.41

67.09

2013

162.70

162.70

158.37

152.21

144.40

135.22

125.02

114.10

102.81

91.45

80.29

69.60

163.99

158.62

151.45

142.75

132.83

122.02

110.66

99.06

87.54

76.39

2014

Future Base Values- Inflation 2.0% per annum

Source: mba Future Aircraft Values, April 2013 update
The aircraft values stated herein are the product and the property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever.
48 The ofﬁcial publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading
Jetrader - September/October 2013

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