Jetrader - November/December 2013 - 30

appraisal

Airbus A330-300
Gueric Dechavanne
ISTAT Certified Appraiser
Vice President
Collateral Verifications, LLC
Tel: 8880-00-0030, ext 702
GDechavanne@cvllc.net

Background and Current
Market Outlook
The current market demand for the
Airbus A330-300 continues to remain
strong, especially in Asia. With the latest increase in maximum takeoff weight
(MTOW) for the aircraft, we expect this
trend to continue going forward as the
aircraft now offers the same range as
the A330-200 with more capacity, which
makes it quite attractive to many operators. Today, Collateral Veriﬁcations (CV)
knows of only one aircraft listed available
for sale. Out of 471 aircraft built, only
three are currently in storage, which is
less than 1 percent of the ﬂeet. It is CV's
opinion that these percentages are considered low for an aircraft type that has
been in production for almost 20 years.
The A330-300 also has 158 aircraft remaining on order. Of the current operator
base, more than 75 percent are based in
Europe or Asia.

Over the course of the last 12 months,
CV has seen values and lease rates remain
somewhat stable for the type with a drop
of about 5 percent or so for used aircraft.
Although the value of new aircraft continues to improve due to the demand for the
type, CV has seen a slight drop in the lease
rates. We believe this can be attributed
to the low interest rate environment, as
well as, the aggressive competition among
the lessor community. Of the three engine
variants offered on this aircraft, RR Trent,
GE CF6 and P&W PW4000, the RR Trent
engine continues to be the engine of
choice. We understand from the market
that P&W-powered aircraft are tougher to
place due to the past ring case issues.
Although we have not yet seen any material
differences in values between the variants,
should these trends continue, there could
be a divergence in values between them in
the future. We are also seeing a growing
concern with the RR control over their ﬂeet

of engines, due to the Total Care engine
program, which could affect the long-term
residual values of these engines should
operators and investors not be able to
receive adequate value from their engines
in part out situations.
The recent delays on the 787 and the
fact that the A350 will not be delivered until
2014 have helped to maintain the demand of
this aircraft due to many operators choosing
the A330 to either complement such orders
or to be used as interim lift. CV does feel
that, even when the 787 and A350 enter
into service, the A330 should continue to
see a good long-term future as a passenger
aircraft since we feel that this aircraft will
serve as a great addition to an A350 ﬂeet
serving various shorter range markets.
Overall, CV still feels that this aircraft has
a strong and viable long-term future as a
passenger aircraft as well as having the
potential for a good converted freighter
aircraft in the longer term.

Current and Future Value Opinions, $ millions
Current
Monthly
Lease Rate
Year of Mfg
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

Current
Market Value

Current Base
Value

2013
$275,000
$290,000
$305,000
$325,000
$345,000
$365,000
$390,000
$415,000
$440,000
$470,000
$500,000
$535,000
$570,000
$605,000
$640,000
$675,000
$710,000
$735,000
$785,000
$835,000
$885,000

2013
18.33
19.77
22.80
25.95
29.30
33.98
36.70
39.83
43.05
46.55
49.98
52.71
55.47
58.49
61.50
65.07
69.28
73.37
78.49
82.67
100.42

2013
19.93
21.49
25.33
28.83
33.11
38.83
42.43
46.58
50.95
55.75
58.45
61.29
64.12
70.05
74.55
77.01
81.03
83.85
88.69
92.37
114.76

Future Base Values, Inflated at 2.0% per year
2014
17.89
19.29
22.74
25.88
29.72
34.86
40.25
44.19
48.33
52.89
55.45
58.14
60.83
66.45
70.72
73.05
76.87
79.54
84.13
87.62
108.86

2015
16.05
17.31
20.41
23.23
26.68
31.29
36.13
41.92
45.84
50.17
52.60
55.15
57.70
63.04
67.08
69.30
72.92
75.45
79.80
83.12
103.27

2016
14.41
15.54
18.32
20.85
23.95
28.08
32.43
37.62
43.49
47.59
49.89
52.32
54.73
59.80
63.63
65.74
69.17
71.57
75.70
78.84
97.96

2017
12.94
13.95
16.44
18.72
21.49
25.21
29.11
33.77
39.03
45.14
47.33
49.63
51.92
56.72
60.36
62.36
65.61
67.90
71.81
74.79
92.92

2018
11.61
12.52
14.76
16.80
19.29
22.63
26.13
30.31
35.04
40.52
44.90
47.08
49.25
53.81
57.26
59.15
62.24
64.41
68.12
70.95
88.15

2019
10.42
11.24
13.25
15.08
17.32
20.31
23.45
27.21
31.45
36.37
40.30
44.66
46.72
51.04
54.32
56.11
59.04
61.10
64.62
67.30
83.62

2020
9.35
10.09
11.89
13.54
15.54
18.23
21.05
24.42
28.23
32.65
36.17
40.08
44.32
48.42
51.52
53.23
56.01
57.95
61.30
63.84
79.32

2021
8.40
9.05
10.67
12.15
13.95
16.36
18.89
21.92
25.34
29.30
32.47
35.98
39.78
45.93
48.88
50.49
53.13
54.98
58.15
60.56
75.24

2022
7.54
8.13
9.58
10.91
12.52
14.69
16.96
19.68
22.74
26.30
29.14
32.30
35.71
41.23
46.36
47.90
50.40
52.15
55.16
57.45
71.37

2023
6.76
7.29
8.60
9.79
11.24
13.18
15.22
17.66
20.41
23.61
26.16
28.99
32.05
37.00
41.62
45.43
47.81
49.47
52.32
54.49
67.71

Note: Aircraft values and lease rates assume a high MTOW and high engine thrust specification.
The aircraft values stated herein are the product and the property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information
contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever.
30 The ofﬁcial publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading
Jetrader - November/December 2013

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