ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 37

full-service airlines seeking to operate
thin, long-haul routes, and to low-cost
carriers that can use it to fly mediumhaul
routes with a full complement
of 240 passengers in a maximum
density layout.
The A321neo is proving to be
popular among airlines and lessors
alike, with over 3,500 aircraft on
order from over 100 customers. In
comparison, the A321ceo saw just
under 1,800 aircraft delivered over its
28-year production run. The A321 has
gained more market share within the
A320 family over time due to vastly
improved capability of the A321 since
its launch, global passenger traffic
growth, and also Airbus incentivizing
airlines to up-gauge through its
pricing of mixed orders for A320/321.
Market Outlook
The pandemic led to a large surplus of
capacity across all sizes and classes
of passenger aircraft. However,
single-aisle aircraft currently have a
lower proportion in storage compared
to twin aisles. In terms of the stored
fleet, older, out-of-production types
are more affected than younger, more
fuel-efficient aircraft like the A321neo.
As of July 2022, almost 94% of the
approximately 742-strong A321neo
fleet is in service, with just 45 aircraft
parked. This compares with 40% of
the fleet in service in April 2020 at the
start of the pandemic, showing the
A321neo was one of the types leading
the recovery.
After prior cuts to output in
the wake of deferrals due to the
pandemic, production rates for the
A320neo family are on the rise
again and are projected to reach 65
per month by mid-2023. Although
external supply-chain problems
were expected to influence A320neo
family final delivery numbers in 2021,
Airbus exceeded its adjusted target
of 530 single-aisles (A320neo family
and A220). However, with Russia's
invasion of Ukraine, raw material
A321neo - Ascend by Cirium Values at July 2022
July 2022
Month and
Year of Build
July 2018
July 2020
July 2022
Current
Lease Rate
0.325
0.345
0.365
Current
Market
43.12
51.36
59.5
43.93
52.21
60.08
34.55
38.31
41.56
Current Base Base Value
July 2027 July 2032
Base Value
25.92
28.53
31.58
Aircraft specifications: A321neo ACF; Engines - PW1133G-JM; MTOW - 93.5T; Provisions
for two ACTs, but not installed
Current values assume Half-life or better condition (Full Life for July 2022 build)
Future values assume Half-life condition and 2% annual inflaction; As of May each year.
All values in $US millions.
Market lease rates assume typical 10-year term for a brand-new aircraft
supply chain issues persist and
deliveries are experiencing delays.
As of July 2022, there are 3,435
Airbus A321neo aircraft either in
service, stored or on order with airline
operators, with Asia Pacific comprising
the largest portion with Europe and
North America trailing at almost equal
levels. When grouped by engine choice,
the in-service fleet comprises 354
CFM-powered and 368 P&W-powered
aircraft. In addition, the 3,435 A321neo
aircraft on order comprise 1,337 CFMpowered,
1,024 P&W-powered and
1,074 with engines yet to be selected.
Values and Lease Rates
Ascend by Cirium increased A321neo
Market Values by 2-3% in late March
Values close to par with Base
Values. Availability of new aircraft
that were destined for Russia was a
slight concern, but we think that the
combination of market conditions and
high fuel prices should favor the type
and prevent any significant impact
on values. Some of the fleet destined
for Russia has already been placed
elsewhere. Airbus A321neo market
lease rates increased by 4-5% in
June 2022. This was driven by an
evident increase of pricing for new
aircraft while current availability of
used aircraft in the secondary market
is almost zero.
Although the A321neo remains
popular, and the vast majority are
back in service, recent transactions
suggest lease rate factors for the
After prior cuts to output in the wake of deferrals
due to the pandemic, production rates for the A320neo
family are on the rise again and are projected to reach
65 per month by mid-2023.
2022 due to improving market
conditions and observed new aircraft
transaction pricing. This aircraft type
suffered the least value decline in
the downturn and now has Market
type are even lower than on the
A320neo, perhaps a sign of lessor
confidence in long-term residual value
and re-marketability prospects of the
larger sibling.
Jetrader * AUTUMN 2022 * 37

ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022

ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022
From the President
ISTAT News & Events
Perspectives: Q&As With Scott Kirby, CEO, United Airlines, and Diana Barr, Head of Global Executive Staffing, Boeing
Farnborough Returns
ISTAT Holds First Sustainability Symposium
Why Governments Should Jump-Start the SAF Revolution
Hands-on Training
Appraisal: Boeing 787-9 and Airbus A321neo
ISTAT Foundation: ISTAT Conference Mentoring
Advertiser Index
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - Cover2
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 1
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - From the President
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 3
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 4
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 5
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 6
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 7
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - ISTAT News & Events
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 9
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - Perspectives: Q&As With Scott Kirby, CEO, United Airlines, and Diana Barr, Head of Global Executive Staffing, Boeing
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 11
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 12
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 13
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 14
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 15
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 16
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 17
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - Farnborough Returns
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 19
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 20
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 21
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 22
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 23
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - ISTAT Holds First Sustainability Symposium
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 25
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - Why Governments Should Jump-Start the SAF Revolution
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 27
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 28
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 29
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - Hands-on Training
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 31
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 32
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 33
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - Appraisal: Boeing 787-9 and Airbus A321neo
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 35
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 36
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 37
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - ISTAT Foundation: ISTAT Conference Mentoring
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - 39
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - Advertiser Index
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - Cover3
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2022 - Cover4
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