ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2024 - 40

APPRAISAL
Also of note is Airbus' introduction
of the A350F in 2021. Entry into service
is expected in 2026 and, to date, Airbus
has garnered 55 orders. The A350F is
based on the -1000 variant, potentially
opening the door for the -1000 to be
used for future passenger-to-freighter
(P2F) program(s). Boeing's 777-8F
(based on its 777X) is slated for entry
into service in 2027. At this time, Boeing
Airbus could gain significant ground in
this segment of the freighter market.
As previously mentioned, the A350
XWB uses the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB
engines exclusively. This may prove to
be a bane for the type, as it has already
cost Airbus a large order from Emirates
(~50 units). In late 2023 during the
Dubai Airshow, Emirates CEO Tim Clark
cited engine reliability issues as the
The A350F is based on the -1000 variant,
potentially opening the door for the -1000 to be used for
future P2F program(s). Boeing's 777-8F (based on its
777X) is slated for entry into service in 2027.
does not delineate which of its 777X
orders are for the freighter variant;
however, a cursory review of press
releases since the type's introduction
shows an approximate 53 order backlog.
If the 777X were to be delayed further,
reason for opting for Boeing's 777X.
When operated in harsher operating
environments, the on-wing time for the
Trent XWB is greatly reduced. However,
Rolls-Royce is reportedly working to
resolve these issues and incremental
fixes/improvements are anticipated.
This will continue to be a watch-item
in the near-term as Rolls-Royce works
to improve on-wing time for Trent
XWB engines.
In wake of the COVID-19 pandemic,
values and lease rates for the A3501000
saw less significant declines than
current-gen widebody aircraft - ~815%,
depending on vintage. Values and
lease rates for the type have stabilized
since their initial declines observed in
the early stages of the pandemic.
Overall, the market for nextgeneration
widebody aircraft is strong.
An ongoing replacement cycle (of
current-gen aircraft) is expected to
drive solid demand within the coming
years. In its most recent Air Passenger
Monthly Analysis, the International Air
Transport Association (IATA) reported
that international Revenue PassengerKilometers
(RPK) grew 15.8% in April.
Over the past year, in concert with this
recovery in international travel, values
for widebody aircraft have continued to
show improvement.
Year of
Build
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Current
Market
Value
102.31
110.11
119.90
129.68
137.84
149.49
161.05
172.18
Current
Base
Value
101.54
109.29
119.00
128.71
137.15
148.75
160.25
171.75
Airbus A350-1000 - ACI Aviation Consulting Values at 1 July 2024
Future Base Values at 2.0% Inflation
2025
93.54
100.63
109.47
118.25
125.81
136.14
146.26
156.22
2026
86.21
92.74
100.82
108.81
115.64
124.92
133.91
142.65
2027
79.48
85.51
92.93
100.25
106.46
114.85
122.92
130.66
2028
73.27
78.87
85.72
92.44
98.14
105.78
113.07
120.00
2029
67.55
72.76
79.09
85.30
90.56
97.55
104.19
110.45
2030
62.25
67.11
72.98
78.74
83.62
90.05
96.13
101.83
All values in $US millions
Assumptions: Standard Passenger Configuration, Trent XWB-97 Engines, & Half-Time/Half-Life Condition
40 * THE OF F I C I AL PUBL I CAT I ON OF ISTAT
2031
57.34
61.89
67.35
72.70
77.25
83.19
88.79
94.02
2032
52.80
57.06
62.14
67.13
71.39
76.89
82.08
86.91
2033
48.58
52.58
57.31
61.97
65.98
71.10
75.92
80.40
ISTAT Jetrader - Autumn 2024

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