ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 17

water bombers, which we had no data
on and had never appraised before.
Apparently, I passed the test and was
promoted to an analyst and began my
appraisal career.
On what made her decide to take
the senior appraiser exam:
I was encouraged by Doug, John
[Vitale] and people at AVITAS to go
for the initial appraiser qualification,
and that was a bit of an ordeal. I also,
unfortunately, wasn't encouraged by
everyone in the group. There were
some people who might have seen
me as a bit threatening because, first
of all, I was a very young person who
didn't have a traditional appraiser
background and was female to boot -
but that just upped my determination
factor. I went in, took the exam and
managed to pass on my first go, so
that was encouraging. I know it can
be very difficult for people who put in
all that effort and prepare and don't
get a pass mark because it's a lot of
work and it can be very daunting to
think about taking it again. I was lucky
to have passed, and everyone at work
was quite happy and supportive. A
few years later, some people started
talking to me about being a senior
appraiser, and I wasn't sure what the
additional benefit was at that time,
so I didn't do my senior until 15 years
after I did the initial test. In that time,
I had left AVITAS and went to work for
a leasing company, which was another
very useful experience to have to view
the process from another perspective.
I worked for Morten Beyer for a little
while, and then after I came back to
AVITAS, I was encouraged that " If you
really want to advance further, you
should do the senior appraiser exam. "
It is another level of expertise required
because people complain about the
difficulty of the initial appraiser exam,
but pretty much everything you need
to pass that exam can be found in
the materials. With the senior exam,
anything goes. You have to prepare an
enormous amount of material, and a

lot of it is obtained through experience.
There are things that if you have been
appraising for five years you may not
have run across, but when you've been
doing it for 15 or 20, you're more likely
to have had that particular experience
in your background.
On the current state of the industry:
We all know the depth and breadth in
the reduction in the demand for traffic
is unprecedented. Our team has done
a lot of analysis of the current situation
as it compares to prior downturns and
have come up with our own forecasts
for traffic. We look at traffic and the
aircraft that we believe will be retired
over the next years, and we've created
a value index where you look at where
we will be above and below Base
Value going through a period of years
out in the future. Currently, we're
predicting 2020 traffic to be off about
67% globally - I've not seen anything
below 50%. It's a mess right now,
but we also believe this is a resilient
industry and people are resilient.
It will come back; it's a question
of when. I think the reason for the
huge drop-off is we've got structural
issues; we've got emotional issues;
and we've got financial issues that
are preventing people from traveling.
In prior downturns, we didn't have all
three of those at once - certainly not

edition of our regular bluebook that
we're finishing right now, we've made
some changes to Base Values for some
types, but most of the impact is still
focused on the Market Values because,
for most types, we believe there will be
a resurgence in demand.

Lindsey Webster
Vice President of Asset Valuations
at mba Aviation
ISTAT Certified Appraiser
*Aired on 1 October 2020

On how she got into aviation
and appraising:
When I think about how I got into
aviation versus how I ended up in
appraisals, it is two different things.
Growing up, aviation was ingrained
in me through a lot of influnces. My
grandfather was an aircraft mechanic
on the B-52, and my grandmother
always had dreams of being a pilot.
Both my parents were in the Air Force,
so I was kind of always around pilots,

We've got structural issues; we've got emotional
issues; and we've got financial issues that are preventing
people from traveling.
on a global scale. Initially, our response
was to take some cuts to Market
Values and leave the Base Values. The
first iteration we did with our special
edition bluebook was simply focused on
Market Values because we don't know
how long the effects would take. In the

whether they were fighter pilots or
C-130 pilots, and a lot of them had their
own private aircraft that they flew. I still
have memories of when I was a child
flying in a crop duster down in North
Carolina. I guess it's not surprising that
I ended up in aviation. But the appraisal
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