ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021 - 39

Market Outlook
A321-200 operator and geographic
diversity provides liquidity. Demand
was good prior to the pandemic but
has been depressed subsequently.
At the end of October 2020, per the
Acumen database, 643 A321-200s
have been grounded - 39% of the
in-service fleet - while the 757-200
and 737-900ER stood at 81% and 26%,
respectively. Acumen estimates more
than 100 A321-200s are available for
sale and, except for a few part-outs,
many of these aircraft are expected to
be converted to freighters by 2024.
Although the pandemic has adversely
impacted passenger demand across all
categories, long haul has been impacted
the most significantly. As the A321-200
is used for short- and medium-haul
flying, grounded A321-200s should
return to the skies faster than widebody
aircraft, as shorter-haul flying is
expected to return to historic levels more
quickly, and A321-200 demand should
also benefit from its ability to fly some
of the shorter-haul widebody flying until
demand justifies a widebody.
Demand for dedicated freighters
has increased, however, due to reduced
belly space and pandemic-enhanced
e-commerce growth. Airbus forecasts
demand for a total of approximately
1,000 narrowbody converted freighters
through 2038. Elbe Flugzeugwerke
(EFW), the ST Engineering and
Airbus joint venture, saw its A321
P2F (passenger to freighter) receive
Supplemental Type Certificates from
EASA and the FAA in February and July
2020, respectively. The A321 P2F has
a structural payload of 27.9 metric tons
(61,500 lbs) with a range of over 2,300
nautical miles.
The A321 P2F is the first in its
size category to offer containerized
loading in both the main (up to 14 full
container positions) and lower deck
(up to 10 container positions), which
could aid in entering a narrowbody
conversion market dominated by Boeing
aircraft. Although there is increasing

A321-200, 757-200, 737-900ER
FLEET STATUS AS OF 31 OCT 2020
2000

1701

1671

1646

1500
1000

913

913

643

505

500

505

500
274

0

Total Order

Total Deliveries
■ 757-200

221

Aircraft in Service

■ A321ceo

133

Aircraft Stored

■ 737-900ER

A321-200, V2533-A5, 93500 Kg MTOW. Values at Half-Time Half-Life
CMV

BV

Future Base Values - Inflated at 1.5% per annum

2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2020 48.1

50.6

47.8

45.1

42.5

40.0

37.6

35.4

33.2

31.2

29.0

27.0

2019

46.0

48.5

45.7

43.1

40.5

38.0

35.8

33.6

31.6

29.4

27.4

25.4

2018

43.7

45.6

42.9

40.4

37.9

35.7

33.5

31.5

29.3

27.3

25.3

23.5

2017

40.3

42.5

39.9

37.5

35.3

33.2

31.1

29.0

26.9

25.1

23.2

21.5

2016

38.0

40.1

37.6

35.4

33.3

31.2

29.0

27.0

25.1

23.3

21.5

19.9

2015

35.9

38.2

36.0

33.8

31.7

29.5

27.5

25.6

23.7

21.9

20.3

18.7

2014

33.6

36.2

34.0

31.9

29.7

27.6

25.7

23.8

22.0

20.4

18.8

17.3

2013

32.3

34.4

32.3

30.0

27.9

26.0

24.1

22.2

20.6

19.0

17.5

15.9

2012

29.7

31.6

29.4

27.4

25.5

23.6

21.8

20.2

18.6

17.2

15.6

14.2

2011

27.6

29.4

27.3

25.3

23.4

21.7

19.9

18.4

16.7

15.2

13.7

12.8

2010

25.1

26.9

25.0

23.1

21.4

19.7

18.1

16.5

15.0

13.5

12.8

11.9

2009 23.6

25.3

23.4

21.7

20.0

18.4

16.8

15.2

14.0

13.0

12.4

11.7

2008 22.0

24.2

22.4

20.7

19.0

17.3

15.7

14.2

13.0

12.4

11.6

10.9

2007 21.0

22.9

21.1

19.4

17.7

16.0

14.5

13.1

12.4

11.7

10.9

10.1

availability of 757-200 feedstock due to
recent passenger service retirements,
numbers are limited, with the 757-200
seeing its last delivery in 2005.
The A321 P2F conversion program
achieved a key milestone in September
2020 with the first delivery to launch
customer, Vallair. Vallair also recently
signed an agreement to lease two A321
P2F with SmartLynx and an LOI with
Global Crossing Airlines (GlobalX) to
lease 10 A321 P2F. Per the Acumen
database, the A321 P2F has 13 firm
orders (NBB Leasing & Vallair) and
20 options (Vallair) with several
more under discussion. In addition,
Air Transport Services Group, which
operates all cargo aircraft for Amazon
and DHL Express, is also developing an
A321-200 conversion program through
a joint venture with Precision Aircraft

Solutions. Initial test flights of the A321
PCF (precision conversions freighter)
have already been completed, and FAA
approval is expected in early 2021.
In Acumen's opinion, long-term
A321-200 Market Values are not
expected to decline much due to the
COVID-19 pandemic; however, nearand medium-term Market Values may
remain up to 10% lower than otherwise
expected, depending on aircraft age.
With its large fleet and diverse operator
base combined with good demand
expected for cargo conversion, the
" last-off-the-line " effect on A321-200
values is expected to be somewhat be
mitigated. Market Values are expected
to recover once passenger traffic
returns to historic levels, which Acumen
estimates to be by 2023.
Jetrader

* SPRING 2021 * 3 9
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2021

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