ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2022 - 15

LEFT:
ISTAT President
Dean Gerber giving
opening remarks.
RIGHT:
Rob Morris of
Ascend by Cirium
providing a global
economic update.
Runte, managing director and head of
aviation research at Deutsche Bank.
Warner started off by giving updates on
Boeing's aircraft programs. Regarding
the 737 MAX, he said Boeing is making
great progress. " Over 175 of 195 global
regulators have lifted restrictions on
the MAX, " he said. He also discussed
the freighter market; Boeing saw 150
orders in 2021, which was the most in
the company's history. " Ninety percent
of air cargo is carried on Boeing air
freighters, " he said. For his part,
Pearman-Wright discussed Airbus'
order backlog, stating, " In March 2020,
we had a total order backlog of 7,650.
Today, the backlog is 7,298. Despite
everything, Airbus has delivered 900
mostly new-gen aircraft and maintained
a very solid order backlog. "
Runte, playing the role of instigator,
LEFT: The Airbus
vs. Boeing Panel
was moderated
by Douglas Runte
(far left) and
featured Michael
Warner of Boeing
(center) and Mark
Pearman-Wright
of Airbus.
Day One
ISTAT President Dean Gerber, executive
vice president and general counsel
at Valkyrie BTO Aviation, provided
opening remarks and shared updates
on a few ISTAT programs, such as
the ISTAT Professional Development
Program (PDP).
The first session of the day was
a global economic update from Rob
Morris, global head of consultancy at
Ascend by Cirium. He stated that while
the market is improving over 2020, we
were more than 50% down over 2019.
" Things are getting better, though, "
he said. He shared that the operating
lessor share of the global market has
increased by 2.2% since December
2019 to an estimated 50.3% today,
and the volume of new leases for used
aircraft is recovering to pre-pandemic
volumes. Ultimately, Morris said
Ascend's latest scenario sees 2019
demand levels for travel to be recovered
by August 2023.
Next up was the Airbus versus
Boeing Panel, which featured Michael
Warner, managing director of aircraft
programs and valuation at Boeing
Capital Corporation, and Mark
Pearman-Wright, head of marketing,
leasing, trading and investors at Airbus.
The panel was moderated by Douglas
asked both panelists which comments
from the other they found most
outlandish, precipitating a discussion
about the Boeing 787 versus the Airbus
A330. " The 787 is a family of aircraft,
and the A330 is just one product, "
Warner said. " In terms of sales, the
787 is the fastest-selling widebody of
all time. A330 has 338 sales; the 787
captured that in its first three years
versus first seven years for Airbus. "
Pearman-Wright countered Warner by
saying, " The A330 is the predominant
regional widebody aircraft. The 787
has grown their market, but it has not
replaced A330s. I'm still waiting to see
what product Boeing will put in the
marketplace to replace the A330. There
is a reality check on what the market
can absorb, but the A330 replacement
wave is coming. "
The Frontiers in Propulsion Panel
was moderated by John Feren, partner
at Split Rock Aviation, and included
Romain Chambard, vice president
of marketing at Rolls-Royce; Paul
Finklestein, director of marketing at
Pratt & Whitney; and Thomas Lodge,
general manager of commercial
engines marketing at GE Aviation. The
panel's discussion was mostly focused
on sustainability. Chambard shared
Jetrader * SPR I NG 2022 * 15
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2022

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