ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2022 - 39

E195-E2 - mba 4Q 2021 Values
Year of
Build
2019
2020
2021
2022
Market
Lease Rate
$0.20
$0.21
$0.22
$0.23
Current
Market
Value
29.1
31.49
34.09
36.31
Current
Base
Value
29.39
31.81
34.43
-
Future Base Values at 1.5% inflation
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
28.19 26.89 25.64 24.45 23.24 22.04 20.83 19.63 18.44 17.28 16.15
30.63 29.38 28.03 26.73 25.48 24.23 22.97 21.71 20.46 19.22 18.01
33.19 31.96 30.66 29.25 27.89 26.59 25.28 23.97 22.65 21.34 20.06
36.67 35.35 34.04 32.65 31.15 29.7 28.32 26.93 25.53 24.13 22.73
All values are expressed in US Dollar millions.
While the E195-E2 is Embraer's
Through the pandemic thus
best performing E2 variant, the
aircraft has struggled to keep up
with its main competitor, the Airbus
A220-300, in terms of orders and
operator base. The A220-300 is a
slightly larger aircraft, and a few
previous E-Jet operators such as
JetBlue and Air Canada have opted
to order the A220 to replace their
smaller existing E-Jets, while new
entrant Breeze has opted to launch
with an A220 order while using E-Jets
in the interim. However, despite the
smaller order book, the E195-E2 has
proven its capability and worth during
the pandemic. The aircraft has had
zero aircraft available, Market Values
remain close to Base Values with little
to no volatility, and utilization has
remained high. In fact, from August
2020 to August 2021, on a per aircraft
basis, the E195-E2 had a higher
number of available seat miles (ASMs)
than the A220-300. Also, on average,
an E195-E2 saw higher frequencies
than an A220-300 each month since
the beginning of the pandemic, with
nearly 50% more flights, though the
gap has narrowed in recent months.
With 100 more aircraft in service, the
A220-300 fleet continues to dominate
total ASMs and frequencies at the
fleet level; however, the higher usage
of the E195-E2 with their operators
is a positive indicator for in-service
performance and acceptance.
far, only three Belavia aircraft on
lease from AerCap entered longterm
storage in October 2021, but
this was due to EU sanctions being
placed on the Belarus airline being
associated with an allegation of
migrant smuggling. However, this
forced storage has little to do with
E195-E2 demand and therefore has
not impacted Market Values. In the
near term, mba expects values for
the aircraft to be stable with no
impacts on Base Values due to the
pandemic. Lease rates continue
to be depressed across all market
segments, including narrowbodies.
While many leases for the E195-E2
were signed prior to the pandemic,
new lease rate have seen declines
of around 10% from pre-pandemic
pricing and are expected to remain
soft through 2022.
In the mid to long term, Residual
Values for the aircraft are more
uncertain, as it is still early in the
production life cycle. The order book
and operator base are expected
to continue growing as the market
recovers from the pandemic, and the
aircraft should benefit from its lower
fuel burn performance versus its
predecessors. However, it remains to
be seen how the aircraft will compete
with the A220 in the secondary
market and if operators will move
out of the fleet en masse, similar to
what has been seen with the current
generation E190 family.
MONTHLY ASMs AND FREQUENCIES BY
SINGULAR AIRCRAFT
100
120
140
160
20
40
60
80
Total ASMs
(millions)
10
12
2
4
6
8
◾ Freq/E195-E2 ◾ Freq/A220-300 ◾ ASMs/E195-E2 ◾ ASMs/A220
Source: OAG December 2021
Jetrader * SPR I NG 2022 * 39
Total Frequencies
3/1/20
4/1/20
5/1/20
6/1/20
7/1/20
8/1/20
9/1/20
10/1/20
11/1/20
12/1/20
1/1/21
2/1/21
3/1/21
4/1/21
5/1/21
6/1/21
7/1/21
8/1/21
9/1/21
10/1/21
11/1/21
12/1/21
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