ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2023 - 37

Boeing 747-8F - Oriel Values at December 2022
Year of
Build
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Current
Market
Value
75.0
76.0
78.0
81.0
85.0
90.0
96.0
103.0
111.0
120.0
130.0
141.0
176.0
212.0
Current
Base
Value
75.0
77.0
79.0
82.0
85.0
89.0
93.0
97.0
102.0
108.0
114.0
120.0
151.0
182.0
2023
68.0
70.0
72.0
75.0
78.0
81.0
85.0
89.0
94.0
99.0
104.0
110.0
117.0
148.0
2024
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
71.0
74.0
78.0
82.0
86.0
91.0
96.0
101.0
108.0
115.0
2025
57.0
58.0
60.0
62.0
65.0
68.0
71.0
75.0
79.0
83.0
88.0
93.0
99.0
105.0
Future Base Values at 1.5% Inflation
2026
51.0
2027
47.0
53.0
55.0
57.0
59.0
62.0
65.0
68.0
72.0
76.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
97.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
59.0
62.0
65.0
69.0
73.0
78.0
83.0
88.0
2028
42.0
43.0
45.0
47.0
49.0
51.0
54.0
56.0
60.0
63.0
67.0
71.0
75.0
81.0
Aircraft specifications: Engines - Genx-2B67, MTOW - 987,000lbs
Maintenance assumptions: new aircraft - Full-life; 1 year old 75% of Full-life; thereafter Half-life
All values in $US millions
than weight capability. Also, being
largely comprised of small parcels,
the e-commerce cargo is mostly
containerized and does not require
a nose door. Even though UPS is
the largest 747-8F operator with 28
aircraft, according to the CAPA Fleets
database (as of year-end 2022), other
large express carriers like FedEx and
DHL have opted for side-loading built
and converted freighters.
The current 747-8F fleet is largely
spread between North America with 41
(soon to become 42) aircraft, AsiaPacific
with 34 aircraft and Europe
with 29 aircraft, with only two aircraft
operated by Qatar Airways in the
Middle East and none in either South
America or Africa. Apart from UPS,
all other 747-8Fs are in the fleets of
either dedicated freight forwarders,
like Cargolux with 14 aircraft and Atlas
Air with seven (soon to be eight), or
cargo divisions of passenger airlines,
like Cathay Pacific with 14 aircraft and
Nippon Cargo Airlines with eight. As
BOEING 747-8F BY REGION
North
America: 41
Europe: 29
of year-end 2022, there is uncertainty
around the future of 13 aircraft in the
AirBridgeCargo Airlines fleet due to
the international sanctions imposed
on Russia.
At Oriel, we have almost always
seen and continue to expect value and
lease rate retention for freighter aircraft
to exceed their passenger counterparts,
with the absence of costly interiors
upgrades or reconfigurations at every
customer change being an important
factor. The nose-loading capability is
unique to the 747-8F, which has very
little competition coming from the
Airbus-operated Beluga fleet with An124s
largely inaccessible.
The current slowdown in cargo
Middle East: 2
Asia/Pacific:
34
traffic is likely to affect first the less
capable older aircraft, especially those
with the higher fuel consumption and
converted examples. It may also have
a temporary effect on the 747-8F.
However, in the long term, its values
and lease rates are likely to hold,
supported by its unique capabilities,
and with a likely 30-year useful life not
being an imminent problem.
* SPR I NG 2023 * 37
2029
38.0
39.0
41.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
49.0
51.0
54.0
57.0
61.0
64.0
69.0
73.0
2030
34.0
35.0
37.0
38.0
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
49.0
52.0
55.0
59.0
62.0
67.0
2031
31.0
32.0
33.0
35.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
42.0
44.0
47.0
50.0
53.0
57.0
61.0
2032
28.0
29.0
30.0
31.0
33.0
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
43.0
45.0
48.0
51.0
55.0
ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2023

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