ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2023 - 39

Airbus A321-200P2F - IBA Values at December 2022
Future Base Values
Year of Delivery
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
Current Market
Lease Rate
0.253
0.248
0.244
0.238
0.234
0.227
0.224
0.220
0.214
0.211
0.207
Current Market
Value
24.8
24.2
23.1
22.0
21.2
20.5
19.7
19.1
18.6
18.2
17.7
Current Base Value
26.5
25.9
25.3
24.7
24.1
23.5
23.0
22.5
22.0
21.5
21.0
Future Base Value
2027
20.1
19.6
19.1
18.6
18.1
17.6
17.1
16.6
16.2
15.7
15.3
Future Base Value
2032
14.2
13.7
13.3
12.9
12.5
12.0
11.6
11.2
10.8
10.3
9.9
Aircraft specifications: Engines - CFM56-5B3/3, MTOW - 89,000kg
Maintenance assumptions: Half-life condition
Inflation Assumption: Annual inflation of 1.5% assumed for Future Base Values
Value Assumptions: Aircraft delivered in December of relevant year, Current Market and Future Base Values as of December of each year
All values in $US millions
which deploys the aircraft from its
Frankfurt hub across Europe, into
North Africa and the Middle East, as
well as Titan Airways and EAT through
SmartLynx/DHL. BBAM is the largest
lessor/manager with five examples.
Demand should remain resilient,
boosted by long-term growth in
e-commerce. The Sine Draco and C
Cubed programs have yet to enter
service, and only two aircraft are
in service so far with the Precision
program. With the A321-200P2F and
PCF lines sold out through 2024, supply
constraints should favor asset value
retention and support lease rates.
Airbus A321P2F Values
and Lease Rates
IBA maintains a positive long-term
outlook for A321P2F values and lease
rates, with sustained demand expected
for fleet growth and replacement of
older 757s. Market lease rates have
declined recently, however, with
gradually increasing supply and lower
feedstock pricing. Two to three years
ago, the earliest A321 deliveries
exhibited lease rates in the mid- to
upper US$200,000 range. For the latter
half of 2022, IBA has now observed
monthly contracted lease rates in the
low US$200,000 range.
of feedstock passenger Airbus A321
aircraft should prevent further value
dips for the Airbus A321P2F.
In the near-term, the air cargo
industry faces headwinds, with high
inflation in many economies, rising
interest rates, a still relatively strong
There may be some volatility in demand, but IBA
expects continued long-term growth in e-commerce.
IBA has observed a similar trend
in lease rates of the Boeing 737-800
converted freighters, which have
settled down from the levels observed
for the earliest conversions.
Airbus A321P2F Market Values
have also dipped below Base Value,
influenced by the lower observed
lease rates witnessed in recent
months. In the medium-term, the
expected continued recovery in values
U.S. dollar and the ongoing conflict in
Ukraine driving risk of recession. While
there may be some near-term volatility
in demand, IBA expects continued
long-term growth in e-commerce. This
trend should result in strong demand
for dedicated freighters from express
operators and e-tailers looking to
take greater control of their logistics
networks, a positive driver of value for
the Airbus A321P2F.
* SPR I NG 2023 * 39

ISTAT Jetrader - Spring 2023

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