ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2021 - 34

FIGURE 2: WORLD TRAFFIC OUTLOOK (RPKS)
(base 100 compared to equivalent month in 2019)
Sources: IATA, FlightRadar24, OAG, SABRE, Airbus Global Market Forecast (September 2021)
from November was greeted by a surge of forward bookings,
demonstrating a high level of pent-up demand. This is
important in absolute terms as it is the largest long-haul
market, but also as an indicator of what may happen as other
long-haul markets open up in future.
Low vaccination rates in some Asia-Pacific countries,
coupled with very strict lockdown rules, mean that we
have yet to see the beginnings of an international recovery
in the region as we go to press. However, we have seen
an acceleration of vaccination campaigns in many Asian
countries, allowing the progressive abandonment of " Zero
Covid " strategies in some countries in favor of selective and
controlled reopening.
vaccination threshold is reached. In some Asian countries,
that point may not be reached until the second half of 2022.
With that caveat, we still see a clear potential for a very
strong summer 2022 travel season in many parts of the world,
particularly as confidence returns if any health impacts linked
to the reopening are demonstrably manageable at a local level.
At Airbus, we update our traffic recovery corridor (see
Figure 2) regularly, but for several months, our top-line
message has not changed. We see an aggregated global
recovery window from 2023-2025, with domestic travel
leading - in some areas already occurring, otherwise from
2022 - followed by regional travel and long-haul travel, which
will take the longest to recover. As we
We see an aggregated global recovery window from 2023-2025,
with domestic travel leading followed by regional travel and long-haul
travel, which will take the longest to recover.
What of 2022?
It is still too early to cry victory over COVID-19, given the
potential emergence of new variants and risks of seasonal
resurgence during the northern winter. However, the reduction
in hospitalizations and deaths among the vaccinated give
cause for hope. The end-of-2021 holiday season will be a
telling indicator. If all goes well, we can expect a stronger
reopening during 2022 and an even clearer correlation
between vaccination coverage and easing of restrictions,
which we model coming three to six months after a 70%
34 * THE OF F I C I AL PUBL I CAT I ON OF ISTAT
COVID-19
VACCINE
revise our modeling of traffic recovery,
we now see variations from one month
to the next that are within the margins of uncertainty inherent
to our scenario assumptions. In some cases, we see these
boundaries moving forward in time, but would look to see two
to three quarters of continuous improvement in the trend.
Beyond 2022
Of course, traffic recovery is only the starting point. So far,
airline managements worldwide have shown exemplary
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