ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2022 - 18

See: " If you asked me 25 years
ago, we would say it has to be OEM
sponsored. However, in recent times,
the development of the conversions
that are non-OEM related have come
around and had sound and proven
designs. You like to have OEMsponsored
conversion, but many times
that comes with a price. The OEMs
have to provide a reasonable value add.
Their cost/overhead pushes them out of
consideration in many cases. "
Kehr: " I have a balanced view
because the OEM has all the data,
which is preferred, but it's good to
have competition. "
Appraisers
Before heading into the Appraisers Panel,
Bryson Monteleone, senior advisor of
aviation finance advisory services at PwC
Ireland, provided an ISTAT Appraisers
Program update. " The program continues
to grow, " he said. " We have five new
Certified Appraisers and three new
Certified Senior Appraisers. Conversion
from candidate to Appraiser now has
more hands-on opportunities. "
Just this summer, the program
had an on-site technical inspection
opportunity. The program also
completed the merger of its Handbook
and Code of Ethics, which is set to be
released in 2023. The Policies and
Procedures have been revised, and the
program refined the election process
of chair and vice chair, which will take
place in March 2023.
The priorities for the near term
are to prepare for the autumn exams
(occurring in London, Dublin and
Washington, D.C.); ensure the exams
are prudent and reflective of the
challenges in appraising; ensure the
program and its members remain
educated and current on salient topics
and issues facing the industry and its
stakeholders; and structure a fair and
fit for purpose accreditation platform
that holds accountability to the program
and individual certification.
Aisling McCarthy, managing director
at Avionix Management Ltd., moderated
the Appraisers Panel, which welcomed
panelists Oliver Stuart-Menteth,
managing director at Fintech Aviation
Services SARL; Olga Razzhivina,
director at Oriel; David Rushe, senior
vice president of mature aircraft and
engine leasing at Aergo; and Mike
Yeomans, director of valuations at IBA.
AUDIENCE POLLS
What do you believe will be
the dominant contributor to
net zero carbon emissions in
aviation by 2050?
* Carbon credits/offsets/
capture: 25%
* SAF: 75%
* New engine tech: 0%
* Airline operational
efficiencies: 0%
How far do you think alternative propulsion technology
will have progressed by 2035?
* Small (9 to 50 seats) commuter aircraft with
electric power are being produced and delivering in
" meaningful " numbers: 57%
* Larger electric or hydrogen powered regional aircraft
(up to 100 seats) are already in service: 29%
* A 150-200 seat short/medium haul aircraft powered
by electricity or hydrogen is being offered for sale by
at least one OEM: 0%
* Hydrogen power technology is in advanced
development for long-haul widebody aircraft with a
clear path to EIS by 2045: 14%
18 * THE OF F I C I AL PUBL I CAT I ON OF ISTAT
The main topics of discussion
revolved around inflation and the
effects the panelists are seeing on
different aircraft asset classes, as well
as older-generation aircraft values in
the short to medium term.
On inflation, Yeomans said: " When
we look at forecast inflation and how
we treat that over time, we have to be
careful because we're forecasting over
10, 15, 20 years. We have to be careful
not to overinflate and lock that in for
the life of the aircraft. For in-demand
types, we may see some upward
pressure if there are supply constraints
and sufficient demand. "
On the topic of aircraft values,
Razzhivina said: " One thing we can
predict with some degree of certainty,
barring another downturn in eight to
10 years, because we have seen no
MAX deliveries and low neo deliveries,
those aircraft will be fairly in demand in
10 years. That is the positive for their
values. How quickly the rates will come
back is a question of supply in a lot of
cases, specifically the manufacturer's
suppliers. The production rates will not
be ramped up as aggressively as the
OEMs are hoping, which is ultimately
a good thing for value retention. In the
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