ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2022 - 41

Year of
Build
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2005
Current
Market
Value
3.69
3.69
3.96
5.85
9.30
10.87
Current
Base
Value
4.10
4.10
4.40
6.50
10.33
12.08
Boeing 757-200 - ACI Aviation Consulting Values at 30 June 2022
Future Base Values at 2.0% Inflation
2023
-
-
4.20
6.06
9.58
11.21
2024
-
-
-
5.67
8.88
10.41
2025
-
-
-
5.33
8.24
9.67
Aircraft specifications: Engines - RB211, MTOW - 240,000lbs
Maintenance assumptions: Half-life condition
All values in $US millions
2026
-
-
-
5.05
7.65
8.99
2027
-
-
-
4.82
7.12
8.36
2028
-
-
-
4.64
6.65
7.79
2029
-
-
-
-
6.23
7.27
2030
-
-
-
-
5.87
6.81
2031
-
-
-
-
5.56
6.40
2032
-
-
-
-
5.31
6.05
The " Flying Pencil " remains a mainstay of several
carriers' fleets, but particularly cargo carriers.
occasionally becomes Air Force 1 when
flying the president.
The 757 family has the distinction of
having the largest passenger capacity
of any twin-engine narrowbody and the
longest range until recently, when it
was edged out by the A321LR and will
fall further behind with the first delivery
of the A321XLR. The XLR is viewed by
many as the most natural replacement
for the 757 on its longer-haul routes.
Whether this occurs over the long run,
however, remains to be seen. Many
believe that Boeing may have a cleansheet
design up its sleeve that will
serve the middle market.
During the early stages of the
pandemic, the majority of the 757
Year of
Build
1983
1988
1993
1998
2004
Current
Market
Value
5.22
5.22
6.84
11.08
18.09
Current
Base
Value
5.22
5.22
6.84
11.08
18.09
passenger fleet had been stored,
with only 35+/- passenger aircraft
in service at the time. It was unclear
whether the parked aircraft would
return to service. However, as the
market has recovered, many of
these aircraft reentered service and,
today, 169 passenger 757 aircraft
are active.
Demand for the 757 as a
freighter persists and, accordingly,
aircraft continue to transition away
from mainline fleets for conversion.
Conversion costs for the 757 are
approximately $5.00mm - $7.00mm,
and feedstock pricing will likely
decline as market conditions for the
757 inevitably soften over time (as
passenger units are displaced by their
modernized replacements).
The leased fleet of 757s is relatively
small at only 88 aircraft (some of
which are presently in storage). Lease
rates for the 757 have remained
somewhat stable, even in the midst
of the pandemic; however, lease rates
are expected to soften as demand,
particularly for passenger aircraft,
weakens within the coming years.
As a result of the pandemic, values
of the passenger-configured 757-200
initially decreased by approximately
15%. Meanwhile, values for the
freighter-configured 757s dipped
modestly, but quickly recovered, due
to the build-up of demand within the
freight market. Following several
months of market recovery, Base and
Market Values have converged for
passenger aircraft. Going forward,
as retirements accelerate, it will be
difficult for values to maintain pace.
Boeing 757-200 Freighter (P2F) - ACI Aviation Consulting Values at 30 June 2022
Future Base Values at 2.0% Inflation
2023
-
-
6.01
10.25
17.05
2024
-
-
5.19
9.44
16.04
2025
-
-
4.37
8.64
15.05
Aircraft specifications: Engines - RB211, MTOW - 230,000lbs
Maintenance assumptions: Half-life condition
All values in $US millions
* WIN TER 2022 * 41
2026
-
-
-
7.85
14.09
2027
-
-
-
7.08
13.15
2028
-
-
-
6.32
12.23
2029
-
-
-
5.57
11.33
2030
-
-
-
4.83
10.45
2031
-
-
-
-
9.58
2032
-
-
-
-
8.72
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2022

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