ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2023 - 47

APPRAISAL
PAYLOAD-RANGE
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
10,000
1,000
2,000
Range (nm)
3,000
2,500
4,000
5,000
A321-200P2F vs. 757-200SF/PCF
e-Commerce Competition Zone
757-200F 250,000-LB MTOW
A321-200P2F 206,132-LB MTOW
757-200F 255,000-LB MTOW
2,500nm CAPABILITY
with over 350 757-200 aircraft in
long-term storage as of October
2023. During the pandemic, it had
been assumed that many the 757200
passenger aircraft fleet still in
service at the onset of the pandemic
would be converted into freighters due
to expanding e-commerce freighter
demand and the depressed passenger
traffic market. However, AAMI is now
seeing shortages of passenger aircraft
lift due to engine-related groundings
and with OEMs struggling to meet even
depressed levels of passenger aircraft
production targets. This has resulted
in older narrowbody aircraft remaining
in passenger service as airlines try to
meet strong demand for seats.
The net effect on the in-service
757-200 fleet has been to delay
availability for conversion. For at least
the near-term, AAMI expects nearly
all the viable, stored 757-200s to be
returned to passenger service rather
than being converted to freighters.
Year of
Build
1985
1990
1995
2000
Current
Lease Rate
0.190
0.195
0.200
0.205
Current
Market
Value
7.14
9.72
11.98
15.05
Competition from the
A321-200P2F?
There are two main drivers that
enable the A321-200P2F to
effectively compete with the 757200SF/PCF
conversion programs.
First, the above-mentioned lack of
available 757-200SF/PCF feedstock.
But far more important is the ability
of the A321-200P2F to carry similar
amounts of low-weight, e-commerce
freight volumes.
The A321-200P2F can
accommodate 14 standard freight
pallets, the same full pallet capacity
of the 757-200SF/PCF. (It does not
have the capacity of an additional
LD3 container available on the 757,
but this is not considered to be a
materially negative impact.) As such,
A321-200P2F can compete with the
757-200SF/PCF in the sweet spot
of e-commerce flying with highvolume
low-weight freight (less than
40,000lb payloads) in ranges up to
around 2,500 nm.
Air Cargo Headwinds
Continue to Persist
Reports from IATA show weakness
in overall air freight demand. Even
though August 2023 freight tonnekilometers
were up 1.2% from August
of 2022, available freighter capacity
increased by 12.2%. This has led to a
very worrisome systemwide freighter
load factor of only 42%.
Declining load factors lead to
freight margin erosion, as yields
have declined from a high of
US$18 per ton during the peak of
the pandemic to US$2 per ton in
October. This has caused lease rates
for the 757-200SF/PCF to slip to
US$190,000-$205,000 per month, as
lease rates for the 737-800BCF are
also down in the US$170k-$185k per
month range.
Boeing 757-200SF/PCF - AAMI Values at October 2023
Future Base Values at 2.0% Inflation
Current
Base Value
5.35
8.64
12.29
15.66
2024
5.31
8.37
11.73
14.81
Aircraft specifications: Engines - RB211-535E4, MTOW -250,000lbs
Maintenance assumptions: Half-life condition
2025
4.99
7.83
11.24
14.05
2026
4.69
7.33
10.80
13.36
2027
4.54
6.87
10.08
12.76
2028
4.29
6.44
9.41
12.22
2029
4.06
6.05
8.80
11.75
Future Values: As of October of each year
All values in $US millions
* WIN TER 2023 * 47
Payload (lb)
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2023

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