ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2024 - 19

shifts. He also compared China's
growth trajectory with India's, noting
differences in their development paths
since the 1970s.
Finally, Pilarski warned of
ABOVE: The Cargo Panel.
potential future bubbles in the aviation
industry. He described two previous
bubbles, one caused by the entrance
of leasing companies and the other
burst by COVID-19. He speculated
about a third bubble on the horizon,
driven by significant aircraft orders
from regions like the Gulf, Turkey,
India and Saudi Arabia, which are all
banking on substantial growth. Pilarski
cautioned that not all of these orders
will materialize, and some regions will
succeed while others may not.
Dr. Aybike Molbay, general
manager for GE Aerospace Turkiye
Technology, discussed the longcycle
nature of engine development,
emphasizing the importance of
learning from fleet experience and
incorporating new technologies. She
pointed out that the G9X engine,
with millions of hours of operation,
underwent 13,000 test hours before
entering service, including dust
testing. Molbay highlighted the
need for highly skilled engineers to
manage the complex life cycle of
engine products. GE Aerospace plans
to hire 900 engineers globally this
year to meet this demand, focusing
on customized learning plans to
accommodate diverse backgrounds.
Christophe Poulain, vice president
of commercial strategy, sales and
marketing at CFM, noted that while
significant progress has been made
in engine technology, much remains
to be done, particularly regarding
sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Most
engines can currently run on a blend
of SAF and traditional jet fuel, but the
lack of SAF availability at scale is a
major hurdle. He also spoke about
the challenge of achieving carbon
neutrality by 2050 and mentioned
CFM's RISE program, launched
to address these technological
challenges and advance the industry's
sustainability goals.
Adam's View of
the Industry
Adam Pilarski, Ph.D., senior vice
president of consulting at AVITAS Inc.,
provided a thought-provoking analysis
of global economic trends, aviation
growth and potential future bubbles in
aircraft orders in his presentation.
Pilarski discussed the factors
contributing to higher inflation, such
as deglobalization, decarbonization
and an excess of money supply.
He pointed out that inflation has
decreased since COVID-19, staying
around 3%, and questioned why the
Federal Reserve remains fixated on a
2% inflation target. He also noted the
risk of recession due to rising interest
rates and ongoing global uncertainties,
particularly in elections across several
major countries.
Regarding China, Pilarski discussed
its dramatic growth from 1982 to
the present, with China now holding
19% of global passengers. However,
he predicted that China's growth
is slowing due to demographic
challenges, deglobalization and political
Cargo Panel
The Cargo Panel, moderated by Camille
Pousseur, marketing director at Stratos,
explored the evolving cargo industry, its
current challenges and the future outlook.
Lars Jordahn, global head at
Maersk Air Cargo, highlighted that
the global supply chain is undergoing
significant changes, leading to a volatile
market with challenges like supply
shortages. He emphasized the need for
a level playing field in terms of cost to
accelerate net-zero emissions efforts.
Malcolm Macbeth, senior
vice president of global air fleet
management at DHL Express, remarked
that while market dynamics feel
similar to 20 years ago, integrators
have captured a larger share, and B2C
traffic has significantly increased. He
shared that DHL is pressuring itself to
meet net-zero targets, with 3% of its
total jet fuel being SAF, far exceeding
the global average of 0.17%. He also
discussed the high cost of SAF and
DHL's approach to aircraft ownership,
likening it to owning a house - buy if
you have the cash, lease if you need
liquidity elsewhere.
Ali Sedat Ozkazanc, CEO of MNG
Airlines, noted that e-commerce and
the pandemic have reshaped the
market. One of the biggest challenges
* WIN TER 2024 * 19
ISTAT Jetrader - Winter 2024

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