AAIA Factbook 2011 - (Page 11)

afTerMarkeT sales hIsTory anD foreCasT 2002 To 2012 The channel forecast results for 2009 and 2010, published in last year’s Digital Aftermarket Factbook, have been revised for the latest model update. The totals for both years have been revised down slightly, with the new 2009 total 0.5 percent lower than reported last year, representing a 1.7 percent decline in 2009 compared to the previously forecast growth rate of -1.2 percent. For 2010, the growth rate projected is now at 3.8 percent, compared to the previous expectation of 4.5 percent growth. For 2009, the main changes are in the New Car Dealer channel, the Warehouse Clubs channel, and the General Automotive Repair Shops channel. The most significant revisions to our 2009 economic assumptions, which were the driving force behind these changes, were a decrease in total vehicle population, an increase in new vehicle sales, higher fuel prices and lower disposable income. aftermarket sales to end users by Distribution Channel: history and forecast (Millions of Consumer Dollars) Year over Year Percent Change NAICS Codes 441110 811111 811121 441310 441320 452910 811192 811191 447190 447110 4412 811113 811122 452112 4541 811118 42 441120 811112 811198 452990 4442 45431 444130 452111 445110 4431 8114 Channel Sales New Car Dealers General automotive repair shops Automotive body, paint & interior repair & maintenance Automotive Parts & Accessories stores1 Tire Dealers Warehouse clubs & superstores Carwashes Automotive oil change & lubrication shops Other gasoline stations Gasoline stations with convenience stores Other motor vehicle dealers Automotive transmission repair specialists Automotive glass replacement shops Discount or mass merchandising dept stores (excl. leased depts) Electronic shopping & mail-order houses Other automotive mechanical & electrical repair & maintenance Wholesalers Used Car Dealers Automotive exhaust system repair specialists All Other automotive repair & maintenance All other general merchandise stores Lawn & garden equipment & supplies stores Fuel dealers Hardware stores Conventional department stores (excl. leased depts) Supermarkets & other grocery (except convenience) stores Electronics & appliance stores Personal & household goods repair & maintenance All others Total Automotive Aftermarket 2002 Census 57,758 26,451 19,081 18,571 11,931 3,810 4,648 4,215 5,321 3,333 3,336 2,319 2,505 2,492 2,543 1,899 1,709 1,626 1,206 938 585 609 254 230 184 123 43 14 329 178,064 2007 Estimate 63,073 32,647 24,100 20,437 12,390 7,137 6,197 5,633 5,835 4,521 4,271 3,039 3,169 2,953 2,796 2,217 2,150 2,017 1,497 1,251 639 600 305 250 201 147 47 16 389 209,924 2008 Estimate 62,348 33,436 24,449 20,065 12,051 7,541 6,244 5,709 5,808 4,530 4,242 3,130 3,216 2,937 2,734 2,268 2,174 2,005 1,537 1,270 625 585 299 245 196 144 45 16 380 210,233 2009 Estimate 59,395 33,964 24,535 19,496 11,648 7,549 6,204 5,598 5,678 4,502 4,176 3,183 3,205 2,950 2,731 2,289 2,176 1,994 1,558 1,268 623 577 296 244 196 141 45 16 379 206,618 2010* Forecast 60,778 36,166 25,816 19,966 12,103 7,810 6,458 5,977 5,861 4,573 4,270 3,420 3,388 2,904 2,675 2,467 2,266 2,076 1,678 1,324 610 579 295 239 192 143 44 18 373 214,467 2011* Forecast 62,383 37,744 26,893 20,643 12,574 8,146 6,803 6,354 6,030 4,686 4,380 3,586 3,543 2,869 2,645 2,600 2,351 2,137 1,764 1,397 603 587 296 236 190 145 44 19 371 222,019 2012* Forecast 64,553 39,060 28,057 21,215 13,173 8,537 7,156 6,736 6,218 4,864 4,515 3,718 3,711 2,874 2,665 2,715 2,455 2,202 1,836 1,485 608 606 303 238 191 150 44 20 377 230,284 2008 -1.1% 2.4% 1.4% -1.8% -2.7% 5.7% 0.8% 1.3% -0.5% 0.2% -0.7% 3.0% 1.5% -0.5% -2.2% 2.3% 1.1% -0.6% 2.7% 1.5% -2.3% -2.5% -2.0% -2.3% -2.2% -1.6% -3.2% 2.7% -2.3% 0 .1% 2009 -4.7% 1.6% 0.3% -2.8% -3.3% 0.1% -0.6% -1.9% -2.2% -0.6% -1.6% 1.7% -0.3% 0.4% -0.1% 0.9% 0.1% -0.5% 1.4% -0.2% -0.3% -1.3% -0.8% -0.2% -0.2% -2.0% -0.3% -1.0% -0.3% -1 .7% 2010* 2011* 2012* 2.3% 6.5% 5.2% 2.4% 3.9% 3.5% 4.1% 6.8% 3.2% 1.6% 2.2% 7.5% 5.7% -1.6% -2.0% 7.8% 4.1% 4.1% 7.6% 4.4% -2.1% 0.4% -0.5% -2.1% -2.1% 1.0% -2.1% 7.9% -1.6% 3 .8% 2.6% 4.4% 4.2% 3.4% 3.9% 4.3% 5.3% 6.3% 2.9% 2.5% 2.6% 4.8% 4.6% -1.2% -1.1% 5.4% 3.7% 3.0% 5.2% 5.5% -1.2% 1.3% 0.4% -1.2% -1.1% 1.7% -1.2% 6.9% -0.5% 3 .5% 3.5% 3.5% 4.3% 2.8% 4.8% 4.8% 5.2% 6.0% 3.1% 3.8% 3.1% 3.7% 4.7% 0.2% 0.8% 4.4% 4.4% 3.1% 4.1% 6.3% 0.8% 3.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.8% 3.6% 0.8% 6.9% 1.6% 3 .7% 5-Yr CAGR 07-12* 0.5% 3.7% 3.1% 0.7% 1.2% 3.6% 2.9% 3.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.1% 4.1% 3.2% -0.5% -1.0% 4.1% 2.7% 1.8% 4.2% 3.5% -1.0% 0.2% -0.1% -1.0% -1.0% 0.5% -1.2% 4.6% -0.6% 1 .9% Notes: Source: * Forecast 1 Auto Parts and Accessories Store sales include only those sales to the general public. AAIA Channel Forecast Model 11 2011 digit al aft ermarket fa c tb o o k cop y righ t © 2010 aut omot ive aft ermarket indust ry asso c ia tio n http://pages.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/aaia/factbook2011/docs/Page11-SalesHistoryandForecast.xls

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of AAIA Factbook 2011

AAIA Factbook 2011
Table of Contents
Economic Indicators
Key Economic Indicators
Aftermarket Employment
Technician Employment and Wages
U.S. Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
Introduction to the Channel Forecast Model
2010 to 2012 Forecast Assumptions
U.S. Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
Aftermarket Sales History and Forecast 2002 to 2012
Aftermarket Sales by Distribution Channel
Automotive Aftermarket Segmentation
Aftermarket Service and Retail Channels
Aftermarket Service and Retail Outlet Analysis
Program Distribution Summary
Financial Indicators
Financial Profiles of Selected Aftermarket Companies
Aftermarket Mergers and Acquisitions
Automotive Aftermarket
Consumer Profile
Sales of Replacement Tires
Replacement Rates for Motor Vehicle Parts and Jobs
Accessories
Aftermarket Accessories
Chemicals and Fluids
Automotive Chemicals and Fluids
Aftermarket Segments
Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Aftermarket
Tool and Equipment Aftermarket
Paint, Body and Equipment Aftermarket
Bodyshop Business Industry Profile
Vehicle Sales, Usage and Registrations
U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales
Top 10 Light Vehicle Sales
U.S. Motor Vehicle Population
Hybrid Vehicles
Vehicle Operating Costs
Gasoline Affordability and Vehicle Miles Traveled
State Summary Statistics
Global Aftermarket
Global Economic and Automotive Data
Global Vehicle Registrations
Canadian Aftermarket
Mexican Aftermarket
Chinese Aftermarket
Glossary and Reference
Glossary of Aftermarket Terms
NAICS Definitions
Aftermarket Data Resources
AAIA Market Research
AAIA – Lang Market Comparison
Harmonization of Aftermarket Industry Data
The Lang Aftermarket Annual 2011

AAIA Factbook 2011