AAIA Factbook 2011 - (Page 48)

MeDIuM anD heavy DuTy TruCk afTerMarkeT The medium- and heavy-duty segment of the aftermarket includes parts, accessories, non-warranty service repair and maintenance for commercial, industrial and agricultural vehicles, which fall within vehicle weight classes four through eight. Usage of these vehicles and their demand for replacement parts remain strongly linked to the health of the economy. As more raw material and finished goods are shipped across the country, the need for commercial truck transportation tends to increase. The 1997 to 2010 sales trend for medium- and heavy-duty truck aftermarket was recalibrated in 2009 to reflect a closer correlation with miles driven for these classes of vehicles. While this procedure provided a reason to adjust earlier estimates of total sales between 2004 and 2007, the recession of 2008 to 2009 provided an even greater reason to reduce previous estimates for 2008 and 2009. Our latest forecast for the period 2010 to 2012 correlates with the anticipated recovery for the overall economy and more specifically for the light vehicle aftermarket as discussed in an earlier sections. Our analysis of truck tonnage indicates operations were running about 2 percent above the zero baseline through September, 2008. Starting in October, truck tonnage began a slow, steady slide reaching its lowest point 10.2 percent below baseline in November, 2009. At this writing, a rather abrupt uptick was experienced in December, 2009 and January, 2010. The combined impact of declining truck tonnage and a drop in sales and shipments of truck replacement tires and retreads provides ample reason for a cautious outlook. However, assuming economists are correct in their judgment of a general economic recovery during the next three years, we expect the medium- and heavy-duty truck aftermarket to experience increases of 3.7 percent in 2010 and 3.3% increases in 2011 and 2012. Medium and heavy Duty aftermarket sales (billions of retail Dollars) Medium and heavy Duty Miles Driven 1999-2008 (Millions of Miles) 240,000 235,000 230,000 225,000 220,000 215,000 210,000 205,000 200,000 195,000 $80 $70 $63.5 $64.3 $61.5 $60.9 $61.8 $62.6 $68.8 $70.5 $67.4 $69.9 $67.0 $72.2 $74.6 $60 $50 $40 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011 2012 * Forecast Historical data have been revised. Source: AAIA 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Note: Note: Historical data have been revised. Source: U.S. Department of Transportation sales and shipments of Truck replacement Tires and retreads, 2000-2009 $8 $7 Sales (In Billions) $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Tire & Retread Sales (Left Axis) Note: Historical data have been revised. Tire Shipments (Right Axis) Sources: AAIA, Modern Tire Dealer’s 2010 Facts Issue Truck Tonnage analysis 5 (% change in 12- Month Moving Total compared to same month of previous year) 18 Shipments (In Millions) 17 16 15 14 13 12 Tire Shipments 3 (right axis) 1 Tire & Retread Sales -1 (left axis) -3 -5 -7 -9 -11 -13 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jun Jan-10 Jun -15 % Change in Truck Tonage Index Truck Tonnage Sources: AAIA’s Industry Indicators Report, American Trucking Associations 48 2 0 1 1 d i g i t a l a f t e rma rk et f a ctbo o k c o p y r i g h t © 2 0 1 0 a uto mo ti ve a f terma rk et i ndust ry associat ion http://pages.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/aaia/factbook2011/docs/Page48-MediumandHeavyDutySegment.xls

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of AAIA Factbook 2011

AAIA Factbook 2011
Table of Contents
Economic Indicators
Key Economic Indicators
Aftermarket Employment
Technician Employment and Wages
U.S. Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
Introduction to the Channel Forecast Model
2010 to 2012 Forecast Assumptions
U.S. Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
Aftermarket Sales History and Forecast 2002 to 2012
Aftermarket Sales by Distribution Channel
Automotive Aftermarket Segmentation
Aftermarket Service and Retail Channels
Aftermarket Service and Retail Outlet Analysis
Program Distribution Summary
Financial Indicators
Financial Profiles of Selected Aftermarket Companies
Aftermarket Mergers and Acquisitions
Automotive Aftermarket
Consumer Profile
Sales of Replacement Tires
Replacement Rates for Motor Vehicle Parts and Jobs
Accessories
Aftermarket Accessories
Chemicals and Fluids
Automotive Chemicals and Fluids
Aftermarket Segments
Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Aftermarket
Tool and Equipment Aftermarket
Paint, Body and Equipment Aftermarket
Bodyshop Business Industry Profile
Vehicle Sales, Usage and Registrations
U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales
Top 10 Light Vehicle Sales
U.S. Motor Vehicle Population
Hybrid Vehicles
Vehicle Operating Costs
Gasoline Affordability and Vehicle Miles Traveled
State Summary Statistics
Global Aftermarket
Global Economic and Automotive Data
Global Vehicle Registrations
Canadian Aftermarket
Mexican Aftermarket
Chinese Aftermarket
Glossary and Reference
Glossary of Aftermarket Terms
NAICS Definitions
Aftermarket Data Resources
AAIA Market Research
AAIA – Lang Market Comparison
Harmonization of Aftermarket Industry Data
The Lang Aftermarket Annual 2011

AAIA Factbook 2011