AAIA Factbook 2011 - (Page 9)

2010 - 2012 foreCasT assuMPTIons Model Review: The channel forecast results for 2009 and 2010, published in last year’s Digital Aftermarket Factbook, have been revised for the latest model update. The totals for both years have been revised down slightly, with the new 2009 total 0.5 percent lower than reported last year, representing a 1.7 percent decline in 2009 compared to the previously forecast growth rate of -1.2 percent. For 2010, the growth rate projected is now at 3.8 percent, compared to the previous expectation of 4.5 percent growth. For 2009, the main changes are in the New Car Dealer channel, the Warehouse Clubs channel, and the General Automotive Repair Shops channel. The most significant revisions to our 2009 economic assumptions, which were the driving force behind these changes, were a decrease in total vehicle population, an increase in new vehicle sales, higher fuel prices and lower disposable income. These changes are highlighted in the table below. 2009 Update 2009 Vehicle Population (Millions) Light Vehicle Sales (Thousands) Chained Price Index: Consumer Fuel Oil & Coal Real Adjusted Disposable Income (% change) 239.2 9,534 161.9 5.2% 2010 238.5 11,595 167.1 0.4% 2010 Update 2009 236.2 10,358 177.7 2.5% 2010 233.9 11,293 188.8 2.6% Forecast Assumptions: Previously the channel forecast model contained projections for the current year and a forecast for the following year. For this year’s Factbook, the model has been extended out to include an additional forecast year, which should further enable the marketplace to better plan for the future. The rebound in macroeconomic conditions in the U.S. that began in 2009 will continue and accelerate in 2010 and 2011. Most major economic indicators have already begun to move in a positive direction or will begin to trend that way during the year. The economic growth will be steady but slow in some areas, especially on the employment front, and as these factors work themselves out, there will be both positive and negative impacts on the aftermarket. • Positive Impacts: o Nominal GDP growth should average over 4.5 percent annually from 2010 through 2012 o Unemployment will peak in Q3 2010 at 10.0 percent but decline steadily to 7.9 percent by Q4 2012 o Dramatic increases in the savings rate seen in 2009 and 2010 will ease as consumers show growth in consumer spending after a decline in 2009 o A rebound in the housing market and consumer wealth will further encourage consumer spending o Miles driven are expected to increase as the unemployment rate declines. • Negative Impacts: o Increasing energy costs are helping to constrain disposable income growth o Light vehicle sales should approach pre-recession levels of near 16 million units by 2012 o 2008 through 2010 total vehicle sales of 35 million is 30 percent less than recent pre-recession historical 3 year averages, reducing the number of vehicles entering traditional prime repair ages. The net result of these changes is that the U.S. aftermarket should grow by 3.8 percent in 2010, followed by continued growth in 2011 and 2012 of 3.5 percent and 3.7 percent respectively. These figures are actually slightly above the 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2002 to 2007 of 3.3 percent. The market growth from 2010 through 2012 will result in the 2012 total U.S. aftermarket topping $230 billion. Although the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the total U.S. aftermarket from 2007 through 2012 will be only 1.9 percent, it should be pointed out that two of the five years from 2008 and 2009 were virtually no growth (0.1 percent and -1.7 percent). 9 2011 digit al aft ermarket fa c tb o o k cop y righ t © 2010 aut omot ive aft ermarket indust ry asso c ia tio n

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of AAIA Factbook 2011

AAIA Factbook 2011
Table of Contents
Economic Indicators
Key Economic Indicators
Aftermarket Employment
Technician Employment and Wages
U.S. Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
Introduction to the Channel Forecast Model
2010 to 2012 Forecast Assumptions
U.S. Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
Aftermarket Sales History and Forecast 2002 to 2012
Aftermarket Sales by Distribution Channel
Automotive Aftermarket Segmentation
Aftermarket Service and Retail Channels
Aftermarket Service and Retail Outlet Analysis
Program Distribution Summary
Financial Indicators
Financial Profiles of Selected Aftermarket Companies
Aftermarket Mergers and Acquisitions
Automotive Aftermarket
Consumer Profile
Sales of Replacement Tires
Replacement Rates for Motor Vehicle Parts and Jobs
Accessories
Aftermarket Accessories
Chemicals and Fluids
Automotive Chemicals and Fluids
Aftermarket Segments
Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Aftermarket
Tool and Equipment Aftermarket
Paint, Body and Equipment Aftermarket
Bodyshop Business Industry Profile
Vehicle Sales, Usage and Registrations
U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales
Top 10 Light Vehicle Sales
U.S. Motor Vehicle Population
Hybrid Vehicles
Vehicle Operating Costs
Gasoline Affordability and Vehicle Miles Traveled
State Summary Statistics
Global Aftermarket
Global Economic and Automotive Data
Global Vehicle Registrations
Canadian Aftermarket
Mexican Aftermarket
Chinese Aftermarket
Glossary and Reference
Glossary of Aftermarket Terms
NAICS Definitions
Aftermarket Data Resources
AAIA Market Research
AAIA – Lang Market Comparison
Harmonization of Aftermarket Industry Data
The Lang Aftermarket Annual 2011

AAIA Factbook 2011