American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2019 - 32

Industry Looks At Next Year's Election
WASHINGTON-Partisan intensity,
U.S. economic health, battleground state
turnout and the Democratic nominee
are among the key factors that will determine the 2020 U.S. presidential election, The Cook Political Report National
Editor Amy Walter told the Independent
Petroleum Association of America at
its 90th annual convention, held Nov.
6-8 in Washington.
However, Walter estimated, efforts
under way in the House of Representatives to impeach President Donald Trump
seem less influential. "This is a remarkable time in history," she marveled.
"Despite all the tumult and the fact that
this would be only the third time in history (impeachment) has happened, there
really are not any signs that impeachment-or the specter of it-is having an
impact on people's opinions of the president. It is not a game-changing event
for most voters."
Meanwhile, considered ClearView Energy Partners analyst Kevin Book, although
the country's oil and gas industry may
shudder as contenders for the Democratic
presidential nomination vow to banish
fossil fuels, even if one of them wins the
White House, legal realities may nullify
some of those campaign promises.
And considering the evolution of the
country's federal judiciary, suggested
U.S. Senator John Barasso, R-Wy., any
efforts to stop U.S. resource development
that lack firm legal grounding are unlikely
to get far.

High Floor, Low Ceiling
According to Walter, most voters'
opinions about impeaching Trump align
closely with their partisan affiliation, and
a small majority of independents reject
it. This may not be surprising, she considered, because Trump's approval rating
has not varied much throughout his presidency, regardless of events or headlines.
"The good news for the president is
that his floor of support is really solid. It
is not going anywhere," she assessed.
"The flip side of that is the ceiling for the
president is very low. Even when times
are good, you do not see a significant
bump in his approval rating."
Walter questioned the truism that a
thriving economy was the deciding factor
for an incumbent president's re-election.
Although the three incumbents defeated
during the 20th century presided over recessions during their first terms, she noted
many presidents were re-elected amid less
than vigorous economic growth. She pointed to a 2012 poll that showed only 12%
of Americans at the time deemed the U.S.
economy as excellent or good, and a 2003
survey that showed only 25% of Americans
graded the economy that highly. Nevertheless, she noted, both Barack Obama
and George W. Bush won re-election.
In contrast, she observed, a Gallup
poll from September shows 50% of Americans rate the U.S. economy as excellent
or good. "That should be a great tail
wind," Walter maintained. "In most polls
a plurality or majority think (Trump) is

IPAA's Dan Naatz (right) listens as National Editor of The Cook Political Report Amy Walter
fields a question. During her talk, Walter emphasized that the 2020 presidential election is
likely to be decided by the outcomes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

32 THE AMERICAN OIL & GAS REPORTER

doing a good job on the economy."
Part of Trump's challenge, Walter suggested, is that his intense opponents outnumber his fervent supporters. "That is
unusual," she described. "For most presidents, those numbers are close to equal."
Nevertheless, Walter noted, Democrats'
dilemmas include a party base that many
believe is far more ideological than the
broader electorate. "If you poll Washington's Democratic strategists and people
who do this for a living, the conventional
wisdom is that Joe Biden can't win the
nomination and Elizabeth Warren can't
win the general election," she related.
"There is panic. Many seem almost resigned to this."
According to Walter, a candidate's
path to the 270 electoral votes necessary
to win the White House appears to hinge
on results in a trio of swing states where
Democratic candidates long prevailed before Trump won them in 2016. "Democrats
look at the 2020 electoral map and say
all they have to do is win the states
Hillary Clinton won, and then pick the
three states that Trump won by the narrowest of margins: Michigan, Pennsylvania
and Wisconsin," she described. "He won
all three of those states by less than 1%,
70,000-80,000 votes total."
House And Senate
Turning to the congressional map,
Walter noted that Republicans were 19
seats short of a House majority. "On
paper, there is a path forward for Republicans because there are about 30 Democrats sitting in districts that Trump
carried," she observed. "Republicans don't
have to win all those races, only a good
share of them, and a presidential year
with higher turnout should help."
However, she said, not only do GOP
challengers have to beat those incumbents,
but the party must win most open seats
in which a Republican is retiring. "Texas
is a good example, with some suburban
districts that have become much friendlier
to Democrats," Walter reported. "Also,
we have not seen a House flip control
during a presidential year since the Eisenhower era."
In the Senate, Republicans must defend
more seats than Democrats, she observed,
but most of them are in "red" states,
while the only GOP incumbents in "blue"
states are Senators Olympia Snowe, RMe., and Cory Gardner, R-Co. Meanwhile,
Walter said, Democrats hope to knock
off Senator Martha McSally, R-Az., but
they will be hard-pressed to hold the seat
held by Senator Doug Jones, D-Al.

American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2019

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