American Oil and Gas Reporter - March 2023 - 46

LNG Output
Makes United States
World's Largest Exporter
LONDON-High prices and the demand
for energy security will drive the
United States to be the world's leading
liquefied natural gas exporter in 2023
and potentially pave the way for $100
billion in new developments to support
long-term growth, forecasts a new report
from Wood Mackenzie.
In 2022, the firm observes, the United
States was the globe's third-largest LNG
FIGURE 1
Liquefaction Capacity* of Current Top Three Global LNG Exporters
300
250
200
150
100
50
2022
2023
2024
Australia
2025
2026
Qatar
2027
2028
U.S. East
*Capacity includes possible projects, some of which are likely to be delayed or cancelled
Source: Wood Mackenzie LNG Tool
FIGURE 2
Next Five-Year Investment Into U.S. LNG Projects by FID Status
30
25
20
15
10
5
2023
2024
Post FID Projects
Source: Wood Mackenzie LNG Service and Tool
46 THE AMERICAN OIL & GAS REPORTER
2025
2026
Pre FID Projects
2027
2029
2030
exporter at 76.4 million metric tonnes
per annum. With operations resuming
at the Freeport facility in Quintana
Island, Tx., Wood Mackenzie projects
the United States will surpass Qatar
and Australia this year to export 89
mmtpa (Figure 1).
Export growth won't stop there, the
firm indicates. Pointing to the combination
of projects already under construction and
the momentum of potential projects, Wood
Mackenzie predicts that U.S. LNG capacity
will grow between 70 mmtpa and 190
mmtpa before the end of the decade, potentially
doubling current exports.
Achieving the necessary export capacity
will require a slew of new projects to be
launched, the firm says, which may lead
to as much as $100 billion in new facilities
in the next five years.
Wood Mackenzie says its report provides
a detailed economic breakdown of
10 major new projects, which collectively
would at least double U.S. capacity. As
it considers investment into LNG projects
during the next five years (Figure 2), the
firm observes that final investment decisions
have been made regarding four
new projects:
· Golden Pass LNG;
· Plaquemines LNG Phase 1;
· Corpus Christi Stage 3; and
· New Fortress Energy's Louisiana
Fast LNG project.
Wood Mackenzie says these four projects
will contribute almost 45 mmtpa to
U.S. capacity from next year.
" Record-high prices and the need for
energy security drove buyers, which included
portfolio players and U.S. producers
and infrastructure companies, to seek
long-term U.S. LNG deals in 2022 and
created huge contracting momentum for
projects, " relates Giles Farrer, head of
gas and LNG asset research for Wood
Mackenzie. " Last year alone, 65 mmtpa
of long-term U.S. deals were signed,
dwarfing the 18.5 mmtpa we saw in 2021.
This activity has pushed a host of preFID
U.S. projects forward and we could
see a wave of FIDs this year and next. "
According to Farrer, projects will be
undertaken by both privately and publicly
owned developers. He points out that the
lion's share of pre-FID projects are seeking
external financing for this investment.
" In most cases, project financing will
support between 60% and 80% of the required
capital, with the remainder either
financed via equity raises and/or balance
sheets, " he assesses.
Investment Required
The firm reiterates that a further series
of FIDs appears likely in 2023 and 2024.
If momentum for LNG projects push$
billion
mmtpa
American Oil and Gas Reporter - March 2023

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