American Oil and Gas Reporter - October 2024 - 53

is the result in substantial part of strong leasing and
leasing acreage activity in 2019-2020. "
Since Biden dramatically reduced leases for
federal lands, permits are likely to plummet in the
next few years. Under a Trump administration, it
truly will be " Drill, baby, drill " and all possible attempts
will be made to undo reckless and harmful
Biden-Harris policies.
Q: One instance in which the Biden administration has not diverged
sharply from the Trump administration deals with international trade.
While there were minor changes, such as replacing Trump-era tariffs on
E.U. steel and aluminum by negotiating quotas with the E.U., many of
the tariffs and quotas instituted during the previous administration
remain. Although such protectionism arguably props up certain American
industries, it is not without costs to other Americans. Looking ahead, to
what degree is it likely that a (Harris/Trump) administration will
embrace protectionist or free trade principles when crafting trade policies?
ClearView: No matter who wins, several factors
suggest a continued retreat from globalization
(the cross-border investment thesis) and globalism
(the ideology). First, a fragmenting global order
appears to be repartitioning into a G-7 and NATOled
alliance facing off against some combination of
BRICS+ and Shanghai Cooperation Organization
member states. This dynamic intensified during the
Biden years, but it was on the radar screen even
before the Covid pandemic. In July 2020, when
Trump was president, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
gave a speech-at the Nixon Library, no less-calling
for a " a new grouping of like-minded nations, a new
alliance of democracies " united against China.
A second element is the historical tendency of
fiscal stimulus to stoke protectionism. When political
leaders spend tomorrow's money on yesterday's (and
today's) factories, they tend to protect those factories.
If Trump-era protectionism can be explained, in part,
by Recovery Act outlays during the Obama years,
then a Harris administration may guard American industries
even more jealously after the unprecedented
spending that arrived during and after the pandemic.
Likewise, if Harris builds on Biden-era industrial
policy with more industrial policy, it can add further
impetus for protection. Notably, Biden kept Trump's
tariffs in place while adding to them; Harris may do
the same thing.
Western governments seem to be trying to shift
from economic value-based supply chains to ideological
values-based sourcing, and from just-in-time global
supply networks to " just-in-case " domestic productive
capacity. In the short run, new industrial build-out
seems likely to stimulate energy demand. Over the
longer term, however, inflationary impacts of redundant
H
T
AEI: The Biden-Harris administration already
has demonstrated a preference for China by
suspending the IRA's requirement that EVs contain
American-made components to qualify for subsidies
(corporate welfare).
In contrast, President Trump is promising tariffs
on foreign bad actors, and a corporate tax cut for
companies that manufacture goods in the United
States. America faces competition from those bad
actors that exploit child and slave labor, have lax environmental
standards and rely on cheap coal-fired
electricity. President Trump is right to prioritize
American manufacturing.
Although Trump faced criticism for refusing to
waive the Jones Act, a protectionist law that increases
shipping costs and hinders the transport of American
LNG, there is hope that, with hindsight, he will reconsider
this in his pro-energy policies going forward.
Another big consideration will be national security.
For example, does it make sense for the United States
to depend completely on China for critical minerals
and prohibit development of domestic natural resources?
The prudent answer is obvious.
OCTOBER 2024 53
American Oil and Gas Reporter - October 2024

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of American Oil and Gas Reporter - October 2024
