Bullish Demand Factors Underpin U.S. Gas Market As Winter 2024-25 Begins By Dena E. Wiggins WASHINGTON-Seasonal volatility in the natural gas market is a complex topic with enough interrelated factors to be the subject of a fairly thick book. But a picture is worth a thousand words, and to appreciate the topsy-turvy nature of the business, one need only look at the Henry Hub benchmark index over the past five winters to see the swings from one heating season to the next. The good news is that supply and demand appear to be moving into a tighter balance as winter begins, thanks in large part to more normal forecast wintertime temperatures. The Natural Gas Supply Association's annual Winter Outlook projects upward pricing pressure compared to the 2023-24 heating season, when Henry Hub prices averaged $2.51/MMBtu. The report assesses five key market variables: · Production/supply; · Weather; · Economic conditions; · Demand; and, · Storage. Barring unexpected developments or " wildcard " scenarios, none of these variables are negative in terms of natural gas pricing pressures. Individually, the variables are expected to have either neutral or positive impacts on the gas market, collectively aligning for upward pricing pressures this winter. DECEMBER 2024 37