American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 42

SpecialReport: Natural Gas White Papers
FIGURE 4
Gas-Fired Generation Structural Growth versus Economic Switching
STRUCTURAL CHANGES
ECONOMIC GROWTH
BCFD
12
10
8
6
4
2
-4
-2
HENRY HUB
$/MMBTU
2.3
0.3
0.1
7.0
6.8
1.0
-2.9
WINTER
2016-2017
Source: Energy Ventures Analysis
accounting for 42% of the total market.
Coal's share has shrunk by more than
half since 2017 to 19%, while renewables'
has expanded from 14% to 24% over
that same period. Ongoing coal generation
retirements are projected to continue to
limit the ability of power markets to
switch from natural gas to coal in response
to price signals. Since 2018, U.S. generators
have retired 66 gigawatts of coal
capacity while adding 36 GW of gasfired
capacity and 136 GW of new wind,
FIGURE 5
U.S. Wintertime Forecast
LAST WINTER | 2023-2024 ACTUAL
ACTUAL: 3,219 HEATING DEGREE DAYS
AVERAGE
ABOVE AVERAGE
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
THIS WINTER | 2024-2025 FORECAST
3,433 HEATING DEGREE DAYS
7% cooler than last winter
4% cooler than last three winters
NEAR-RECORD WARMTH
solar, and battery storage resources (Figure
4). Looking beyond this winter, power
demand growth further will be spurred
by fast-spreading data demand centers.
Although the November 1-to-March
30 heating season got off to an unseasonably
warm start with temperatures in
the major gas-consuming regions well
above normal, EIA estimates that the
market consumed an average of 106.9
Bcf/d in the second week of November,
not far off the 107.5 Bcf/d average for
the same week the year prior when temperatures
were more seasonable across
U.S. consuming markets, even though
last winter would turn out to be the
warmest in 130 years.
NGSA Outlook modeling assumes
" 10-year normal weather " based on National
Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration
forecasts. In the wake of last
winter's warmer-than-normal heating
season and resultingly lower heating demand,
tighter supply/demand are expected
1.9
-0.9
3.6
-0.8
5.7
-3.4
WINTER
2017-2018
WINTER
2018-2019
WINTER
2019-2020
WINTER
2020-2021
-1.7
-1.2
1.5
1.0
0.0
0.5
WINTER
2021-2022
WINTER
2022-2023
WINTER
2023-2024
WINTER
2024-2025
8.7
8.3
9.2
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
4.5
4.0
3,433 HDDs
3,359 HDDs
Actual Winter
2023-2024
Source: Energy Ventures Analysis
42 THE AMERICAN OIL & GAS REPORTER
Forecast Winter
2024-2025

American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024

Contents
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - Intro
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - Cover1
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - Cover2
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 3
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 4
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - Contents
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 6
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 7
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 8
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 9
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 10
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 11
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 12
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 13
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 14
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 15
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 16
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American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 18
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 19
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 20
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 21
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American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 33
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American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - 82
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - Cover3
American Oil and Gas Reporter - December 2024 - Cover4
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