Flight Training - December 2011 - 49

Many weather weenies preferred the old version of The Weather Channel with 24 hours of forecasts and discussions of forecasts. Some find today’s “Storm Stories,” including tornado-chasing videos, kind of interesting. But, the weenies have a demand: Give us a close and lingering look at the upper-air charts the video shows the chasers looking at. We want to know what was on those charts. It’s as interesting—maybe more interesting—than a tornado ripping into a barn. Weather weenies want to see the upper-air charts because they are an important part of the weather on the ground, as well as up through the atmosphere where you fly.
BECOMING A PILOT WEATHER WEENIE.

To learn more about what you’re seeing on the radar display, scroll down to near the bottom of the page’s left side and click Radar FAQ. Once you land on the FAQ page you can skip the FAQ—for now. Instead, click on Introduction at the top left side of the FAQ page and begin a quick online weather radar course. Once you’ve worked your way through all of the items here, regularly looking at the radar on days with different weather conditions, you’ll be well on the way to weather weenie status—whether you want to admit it or not. By now you might also be looking for some answers to the questions on the radar FAQ page.
UNCERTAINTY. Weather weenies know, as the National Research Council said in a 2007 report: “No forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty.” In this report, Completing the Forecast, the council urged the National Weather Service, private weather companies, and media meteorologists to make their forecasts “complete” by including information on forecast probabilities. Except for National Hurricane Center forecasters, few meteorologists making predictions for the public or for pilots talk about the uncertainty of their predictions. One reason is that the public, including pilots, expects straight-ahead predictions.

An exception is the use of probability terms in terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAFs), which are predictions for specific airports. Learning a little about how weather forecasts are made will help you understand that all forecasts are uncertain to some extent—some much less uncertain than others—and when you should be most concerned about trusting a forecast.
BEHIND THE SCENES. Many, but not

Looking at weather radar regularly—especially when you’re planning to go flying later in the day or a storm is forecast or actually occurring—is a good way to begin deepening your relationship with the weather. You can enhance your visits to weather radar sites by using the Loop feature on NWS displays. This shows the weather’s movement over the last hour or so and then jumps back to the beginning. It helps you begin to appreciate how the weather moves. When thunderstorms are on the radar, looping shows you not only their movements but also how they grow and weaken as they move. Watching weather radar regularly could encourage you to learn more about what’s going on in the atmosphere to produce what you’re seeing, not only on the radar but also when you look at the sky. A quick way to find the local weather radar website is to go to the NWS Organization page (www.nws.noaa.gov/ organization.php), which has links to local offices around the country. Click on the link to your nearest NWS office. Here, you’ll find a Radar Imagery heading near the top left side on all NWS local web pages. Under it are links to the local radar and nationwide radar. When you’re looking at the national radar map you can click on any location to call up the regional radar display for that area.

all, NWS office websites have a link on the left-hand side of the home page to Discussions. These are technical discussions by NWS forecasters outlining the reasoning behind their predictions. While the discussions are intended for other meteorologists, such as local broadcast weathercasters, you can learn enough to understand the gist. A main topic is often the uncertainties in a day’s predictions, including how the forecaster is handling differences in the projections among the forecasting models, which are referred to as guidance. Even if you’re not sure exactly what they’re talking about, the discussions will give you a feeling for how reliable that day’s forecasts should be. Watching weather presentations on local television can often help you learn about weather. Many broadcast meteorologists work a little weather science into their forecasts.

LOOKING AT WEATHER RADAR REGULARLY IS A GOOD WAY TO BEGIN DEEPENING YOUR RELATIONSHIP WITH THE WEATHER.
In fact, the two meteorological organizations that formally recognize the qualifications of broadcast meteorologists require such weather education. If you see the emblem of the American Meteorological Society or the National Weather Association on the screen with the broadcaster, he or she has demonstrated skill at helping people understand the weather as well as meteorological knowledge.
WEENIE LESSONS FOR PILOTS. Watching weather radar, reading forecast discussions, and trying to make the link

DECEMBER 2011 FLIGHT TRAINING

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Flight Training - December 2011

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