May 12, 2022 Partner-provided content SPC Convective Outlooks also deal in probabilities. Here we see that the probability of significant surface winds (encircled with black line) reaches a 45-percent chance of happening in western Minnesota/eastern North and South Dakota. Learn how to avoid hazardous weather with the help of the Garmin & SiriusXM Weather Training Series. Garmin created a series of videos for pilots to learn how to use Garmin avionics with SiriusXM Aviation weather to mitigate risks and avoid weather like convective activity and icing. Pilots can also learn how to use the turbulence overlay to find a smooth flight and hear firsthand how a pilot used METARs to determine where to divert when a cloud layer kept her from her destination. Watch the entire series at siriusxm. com/GarminTraining The previous model and charts were all predictions for May 12, 2022. So how did things actually turn out? Infrared imagery from the night of May 12/morning of May 13 shows a mesoscale convective complex centered over the arrowhead of Minnesota. That's a fairly close correlation to the predicted trouble spots. AOPA PILOT / July 2022 77http://siriusxm.com/garmintraining http://siriusxm.com/garmintraining