AOPA Pilot Magazine - January 2025 - 84

RUDDER & WRENCH
WEATHER /
Safe flights start
on the ground
Navigating a less than perfect day
BY JP DICE
WHY DOES IT keep happening? Pilots
keep flying into dangerous weather with
often fatal results. It is easy to cast judgement
and play armchair quarterback, but
most pilots don't choose to launch into
bad weather on purpose. It often comes
down to a lack of understanding of the
atmosphere. As instructors, it is critical
we go beyond the meteorological knowledge
the FAA requires.
These days there should be few
weather surprises. Weather technology
continues to improve. Still, according
to the NTSB, weather is responsible for
about 25 percent of all aviation accidents
with most of the accidents fatal. I am confident
we can reduce that accident rate
even further.
Meteorology is a complex science. It is
critical pilots know where to find data for
84
AOPA PILOT / January 2025
flight planning and how to understand the
weather data available on the ground and
in the air. I asked a pilot the other day if
they knew where the radar on their G1000
originated from. It was a mystery to them.
They were shocked when I said it was a
mosaic of 159 National Weather Service
ground-based Nexrad radars. Yes, the same
weather data broadcast meteorologists
show on the local news. The data received
by your avionics suffers from some limitations
including resolution and time delay.
Cockpit weather can be as much as 20 minutes
old. If you're flying at 160 knots and a
storm is moving at 30 knots, you and the
storm will be in different places within 10
minutes. This means the radar data is more
strategic than tactical.
Proper weather avoidance begins on
the ground. I often begin weather planning
my flights five days out. I begin with the big
picture and then refine the smaller details
as the trip gets closer. A full weather brief
is available on electronic flight bags like
Garmin Pilot and ForeFlight Mobile. There
is also plenty of information regarding
severe weather, icing potential, and frontal
positions online at aviationweather.
gov. Radar apps offering high-resolution
radar data like RadarScope are also beneficial
when examining active weather
when still on the ground. Make sure you
are using a weather app that offers high
resolution radar data and not what I call
" blob-o-vision. " These consumer weather
apps have data so smoothed to improve
appearance on the map that data quality
is compromised.
I am a huge fan of reading your local
National Weather Service forecast discussion.
The discussion pulls the curtain
back on what the local meteorologists
are thinking about the forecast, variables
that may impact the forecast, and
their confidence in the forecast. Reading
the discussion goes beyond reading the
terminal aerodrome forecast (TAF).
While we are on the subject of the TAF,
how often have you wondered the difference
between the TAF and a model
output statistics (MOS) forecast. The
TAF is created by meteorologists at
the NWS office closest to the airport.
CHRIS ROSE
AOPA Pilot Magazine - January 2025

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