AOPA Turbine Pilot Magazine - June 2015 - 14

WAYPOINTS

Not one thing can be done

BY THOMAS B. HAINES
Editor in Chief

Why we're not helpless to fix the pilot population

Watch Editor in
Chief TOM HAINES
every Thursday on
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Week, where he
shares his passion
for flying.

14 | AOPA PILOT June 2015

NEWS FLASH: The general aviation pilot population is
in decline.
Most disturbingly, there is no one thing you can
do about it.
Notice I didn't say there's nothing you can do
about-but after years of study, it is clear there is no
one thing that is going to reverse the trend under way
for the past 30 years.
Most pilots agree that cost is a big reason more
people don't join our ranks. And while cost is certainly a significant factor, even if we could wave a
magic wand and make the costs in sync with what
many of us paid for flight training in the 1970s, we
would not return to the pilot populations we saw during the disco era. For one thing, demographic changes
under way are beyond our reach. The train has left the
station on matters of decreased fertility, aging populations, wages, and immigration-societal changes
the pilot community simply can't control-although
a few pilots I know have done their best regarding
fertility rates.
E.M. Beck, a semiretired professor at the
University of Georgia, pilot, and aircraft owner,
recently shared his findings regarding the future of
general aviation with the leadership at AOPA. Beck
points out that the U.S. fertility rate is 1.86, whereas
a rate of at least 2.11 is necessary to sustain the population. In other words, our population is aging. As
the Baby Boomers enter their senior years, the percentage of people ages 18 to 64-their primary earning
and learning to fly years-is lower than it's been in
decades.
But, you say, the overall population is higher than
it was in the 1970s, so even if a lower percentage of the
population is interested in learning to fly, we should
still see growth or at least stability. Good in theory, but
in fact society's interests have changed. When I was
growing up, the Apollo space program dominated the
news. The nation was fascinated by the notion of going
to the moon. Kids bought airplane and spacecraft models. We read aviation magazines. And astronauts visited
us in schools. Today, the United States has no manned
space program and most people's experience with aviation is on the airlines, which is more akin to riding the
bus than the elegance and high-speed transportation
we experienced decades ago. Aviation is not nearly as
sexy as it once was.

And even if it were, most can't afford it, Beck
points out. According to his research, from the late
1960s through about 1980, the price of a new Cessna
172 equated to about 162 percent of the median white
family's income in the United States. In 2012, that
price had escalated to 512 percent of the median white
income; with Cessna's price increases in the past couple of years, the delta is even larger today. Change the
equation to include all family incomes, not just white
families, and the delta grows further still.
Add in rising higher education costs for the average family; declining retirement benefits from most
companies; families choosing larger, more expensive housing and multiple cars; cellphone and cable
TV bills; and all the other accoutrements we crave
in the twenty-first century and there's little left over
for activities such as flying. Boating, skiing, golfing,
and other activities are feeling the same pinch that
aviation is.
Clearly, there is little we as pilots can do to shift
these societal changes. What we can do, however, is
make sure that we showcase the aviation experience
to those most likely to be interested and most likely to
join us. AOPA research shows that people ages 18 to 59
who are involved in extreme sports, motorcycles, and
car racing and collecting have the highest propensity
to be interested in aviation. Who do you know who
climbs mountains, joins friends on a weekend motorcycle ride, or restores cars? Millions fit that profile,
and yet we only need a couple of hundred thousand
to turn around the declining pilot population trend.
What have you done lately to share your positive aviation experiences with people in this demographic?
Finally, there are more than 500,000 people under
age 75 who hold a pilot certificate, but are not actively
flying. The AOPA Rusty Pilot program is successfully
bringing many of these back, but there's plenty more
to do. These pilots have already cleared the learningto-fly hurdles. They just need a thoughtful pilot like
you to encourage them back into the fold.
As I wrote at the beginning, there is no one thing
we can do, but there are many things we all can do.
Share your ideas. Let's get started.
AOPA
EMAIL thomas.haines@aopa.org

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AOPA Turbine Pilot Magazine - June 2015

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