AOPA Turbine Pilot Magazine - March 2025 - 77

of 280 degrees at 15 knots, gusting
to 27 knots, and a broken ceiling at
2,000 feet agl.
While N791GA was en route to
Jamestown, the National Weather
Service in Buffalo, New York, issued
an area forecast discussion at 3:44
p.m. It indicated that rain would
change to snow between 3 p.m. and
5 p.m. near Jamestown and winds
were expected to be gusty with
low IFR visibilities in snow and
blowing snow.
At 4 p.m. that Sunday, the
pilot's flight instructor checked the
FlightAware flight tracking website
and he noticed that N791GA was
inbound to Jamestown, New York.
He had hoped that the pilot would
divert, but unfortunately, that was
not the case. The instructor even
texted him in-flight to encourage a
turnaround for weather but to no
avail. Alarmed about the situation,
the instructor then drove to the
airport and listened to ATC communications
and the local CTAF.
He was deeply concerned about
the weather conditions and the
pilot's choice of the Runway 25
GPS RNAV approach.
A special METAR issued three
minutes before the accident
showed winds from 280
degrees at 16 knots
with gusts to 21 knots, one-andthree-quarter
miles visibility in
light snow and mist, a few clouds at
500 feet agl, an overcast ceiling at
1,200 feet agl, and a temperature of
0 degrees Celsius with a dew point
of minus 1 degree Celsius.
Two minutes after the accident,
a special METAR indicated winds
from 280 degrees at 20 knots, gusting
to 30 knots, three-quarter mile
visibility in light snow and mist with
scattered clouds at 500 feet agl, and
a broken ceiling at 1,000 feet agl.
Skies were overcast at 1,700 feet
agl with a temperature of minus 1
degree and dew point of minus 2
degrees Celsius.
N791GA's last ADS-B target was
recorded at 5:47 p.m. about one
mile from Jamestown's Runway
25 threshold, indicating an altitude
of 2,250 feet msl. The RNAV GPS
approach to Runway 25 stipulates
a 2,100-foot msl minimum descent
altitude at 1.1 nautical miles from
the airport with one-half mile minimum
visibility, a local altimeter
setting, and lateral guidance but
no vertical guidance using LNAV
minimums. Using vertical guidance,
the LVP MDA is 1,921 feet msl
with one-half mile minimum visibility
and a local altimeter setting.
In the end, it's unclear why the
pilot decided to embark on this
flight and press on in worsening
weather, especially after carefully
consulting with his flight instructor
about the weather en route and at
his destination.
Not only were conditions
prime for icing in western
New York, but the initial
approach fix (IAF)
'Weather Wise'
Learn more about weather
systems with the AOPA Air
Safety Institute's Weather Wise:
Airmasses and Fronts and
Weather Wise: Precipitation and
Icing safety spotlights.
airsafetyinstitute.org/
safetyspotlights
for the Runway 25 RNAV GPS
approach was located far out at
12.4 miles from the Jamestown airport,
prompting an early descent
from smooth conditions above
and increasing the flight's time in
inclement weather. Had the pilot
opted for vectors to the Runway
25 ILS approach, the distance
from the IAF would have been cut
almost in half and could possibly
have even prevented this tragedy.
In addition, the pilot reported
being in and out of clouds, updrafts,
downdrafts, snow, and light to
moderate turbulence. Flying in
and out of clouds, he may have seen
the runway and decided to not lose
sight of it, a classic mistake in low
IMC that can lead to diving below
the descent profile.
Finally, the dark terrain below
the descent path may have contributed
to a black hole illusion
on the long, straight in approach,
which combined with turbulence
and low visibility could have led
the pilot to think he was high on
the descent, therefore descending
prematurely and flying
into the darkness below.
machteld.smith@aopa.org
airsafetyinstitute.org
AOPA PILOT / March 2025
77
http://www.airsafetyinstitute.org/safetyspotlights http://www.airsafetyinstitute.org/safetyspotlights http://www.airsafetyinstitute.org
AOPA Turbine Pilot Magazine - March 2025

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