ASHRAE Journal - August 2023 - 18

PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS
people inside to controlled environments to escape the
climate extremes we're experiencing across the globe.
So, we see where we have come from in 50 years.
Where will we be 50 years into the future?
It is estimated that climate change migration, which
refers to people leaving their current environment for
one more stable in terms of climate-affected events, will
impact over 100 million people by the year 2050, with
a possible 2 billion people being directly affected in the
next 50 years. This migration from current habitats to
GLOBAL RISE IN TEMPERATURE SINCE 1850
place where we need to make uncomfortable decisions.
We are seeing examples of the impact of climate change
around the world! Here's a personal example.
After graduating from college, I relocated to North
Carolina. The Outer Banks of the North Carolina coast
is part of an intracoastal waterway that runs from
Massachusetts all the way to Texas. This waterway protects
thousands of homes from the worst effects of hurricanes
as it lies behind barrier beaches.
Based on scientifi c data, North Carolina has warmed
THE USE of central air
conditioning has increased
signifi cantly in the U.S. in the last
50+years, and buildings account
for nearly 40% of greenhouse
gas emissions worldwide
(right). GLOBAL RISE in
temperature since 1850 (top).
by 1°F (0.6°C) in the past 120 years, while the earth as
a whole has warmed by nearly 2°F (1.1°C). 2019 was
declared North Carolina's warmest year on record going
back 125 years. If emissions continue to grow, North
Carolina is projected to warm an additional 6°F to 10°F
(3.3°C to 5.5°C) by the end of the century.
So, we are going from a 1°F (0.6°C) rise in 120 years to
6°F to 10°F (3.3°C to 5.5°C) rise in the next 70 years. This
could be catastrophic for our state.
With the rise in air temperatures also comes a rise in
water temperatures, leading
to erosion and additional
acidifi cation of our
oceans. It is estimated that
most of the Outer Banks of
North Carolina will be lost
to erosion if sea levels rise
by the 2 ft (0.6 m) predicted
to occur by 2100.
This occurrence and
so many similar events
around the world further
other areas of the world will be due to rising sea levels,
rising temperatures and natural disasters.
Climate migration from rural to urban areas will result
in hotter city environments, increasing the need for
additional air conditioning and more refrigerant use,
creating a circular loop of higher energy consumption,
hotter cities and more GHG emissions. The increase of
commercial and residential air-conditioning loads in
the coming years is anticipated to stress the power sector
and potentially be the cause of grid outages, leaving customers
without the ability to operate air-conditioning
sources during extreme heat events, resulting in life
safety issues.
We are living in a climate emergency.
Our desire to be more comfortable has brought us to a
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magnify the environmental and economic impacts of
the climate crisis on a broad scale. These effects are both
collective, yet very personal for us all. It's affecting me
and it's affecting you, whether you know it or see it yet in
your area of the globe.
Warnings from scientists on the impacts of GHG emissions
and climate change are not new topics of discussion.
In the mid-1800s, pioneering scientist Eunice
Foote was the fi rst scientist known to have examined
the warming effect of sunlight on different gases and to
suggest that an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
would change the atmospheric temperature and
have an effect on climate.
She published the only two scientifi c papers in the
fi eld of physics to be written by an American woman
SOURCE: MET OFFICE
https://ashrae.org/
ASHRAE Journal - August 2023

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