Automotive News - July 22, 2024 - 25

July 22, 2024 * 25
CHEVRON
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positioned to handle judicial challenges as the
court continues to limit their authority.
" I don't think it will make that big a difference to
the EPA and some of its more ambitious programs,
because it was already dealing with a
court that wasn't going to defer to it, " said Robin
Kundis Craig, professor at the University of Kansas
School of Law.
" A lot of the stuff, like with CAFE standards and
with tailpipe emissions, depend on figuring out
what vehicles are capable of doing, and are not
interpretations of the statute. Those shouldn't
change. "
Compromises with industry
Automotive regulators' tendency to compromise
with industry on influential standards could
prevent some legal challenges, even as those cases
get easier to win, experts told Automotive
News.
The EPA relaxed its proposed tailpipe emissions
rule in March following objections from industry
that its standard was unachievable. Similarly,
NHTSA in June significantly walked back its
CAFE standards amid concerns that its rulemaking
was out of sync with the EPA.
" You definitely saw in both of these cases, the
agency put out a proposed rule and really walked
both of them back after getting feedback from industry
and auto groups, " said Alexandra Grose,
senior policy counsel at Consumer Reports. " If
we've come to a consensus, maybe they will be
less likely to litigate. "
However, there have been some attempts to
overturn the EPA's tailpipe emissions rule since it
was finalized earlier this year. In June, a group of
auto dealers and energy trade organizations filed
a lawsuit alleging the agency exceeded its statutory
authority when implementing the rule.
" The agencies do work very, very closely with
the industry, and tend to work out any disagreements
before the regulation gets published, "
Craig said. " So I do think [automotive regulation]
could be one of the least affected areas from this
court decision. "
Statutory strength
NHTSA and the EPA are on relatively solid legal
footing given the strength of the statutes governing
the agencies' rulemaking. But the Clean Air
Act, which gives the EPA authority to regulate
tailpipe emissions, was designed to be overly
CHEVROLET
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halted last winter to fix a software issue but
have resumed. A freshening is possible as soon
as 2027.
Equinox EV: The electric version of Chevy's
Equinox compact crossover went on sale this
year. Chevy has said all trim levels, including a
base trim that starts at about $35,000 with
shipping before a $7,500 federal tax credit,
should be available by the end of 2024. A freshening
is possible in 2028.
Bolt EV: Chevrolet ended production of the
Bolt EV and EUV, built on GM's older battery
architecture, in 2023. Orion Assembly in suburban
Detroit, where the Bolt was manufactured,
will be retooled to build Silverado and
Sierra EVs. GM CEO Mary Barra confirmed the
Bolt will be redesigned onto the automaker's
Ultium electric vehicle platform, using lithium
iron phosphate battery cells. Production is expected
to begin in late 2025, with sales starting
in early 2026.
Corvette EV: A fully electric Corvette sports
car could go on sale in 2028, followed by a
crossover. Speculation has swirled for years
that Corvette could become a subbrand.
Silverado/Sierra: The light-duty Chevy Silverado
and GMC Sierra full-size pickups are
expected to be redesigned in 2026, with
heavy-duty versions following in 2027. GM last
year committed to investing more than $1.8
billion toward future pickup production at factories
in Michigan, Indiana and Ontario that
broad and ambiguous when it was passed in
1970. That could be a problem for the agency
now that the high court overturned the Chevron
deference.
" The Clean Air Act is a broad statute, especially
when it comes to regulating mobile source emissions.
It's a little more prescriptive when it comes
to stationary sources, " Grose said. " I think that
the EPA rule is going to be at higher risk of being
challenged just based on the ambiguity of the
statute that it operates from and under. "
The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of
1975, which requires NHTSA to set CAFE standards,
is much more direct in its application and
less likely to be successfully challenged, experts
said.
Still, the EPA is incredibly meticulous in evaluating
the legality of its rulemaking because of the
politicized nature of its work, experts said. This
means the agencies rarely rely on the Chevron
deference or other ambiguous authorities when
finalizing rulemaking, Craig said.
" Especially when they know they're pushing
the limits of their authority ... the agencies, with
the EPA in particular, work very hard to make sure
they are just doing what the statute says, " she said.
Binding regulation
When NHTSA finalized its CAFE standards in
June, observers said the agency was taking a back
seat to the EPA and addressing industry concerns
that both organizations regulated essentially the
same thing, making the standards difficult to
comply with.
Cars and light trucks have a CAFE target of 50.4
mpg by the 2031 model year under the finalized
rule, a significant walk back from the 58 mpg the
top auto safety regulator originally proposed for
the 2032 model year.
The EPA estimates that electric vehicles will
make up 30 to 56 percent of light-vehicle sales in
the 2030-32 model years under its final rule. Now,
with the EPA rule on shakier legal footing, some
experts are concerned that the CAFE standards
are not strong enough to encourage efficiency
and electrification, especially if they become the
binding rule.
" The CAFE standards will push some improvement
to the fleet, but the rate of improvement for
the fleet would decline significantly, at least what
is required by the regulation, " said Chris Harto,
senior policy analyst at Consumer Reports.
" You're going from a standard that is pushing
pretty significant amounts of electrification to ...
marginal improvements year over year. "
build the Silverado and Sierra. The next-generation
Silverado and Sierra also are likely contenders
for plug-in hybrid technology. GM has
said it will sell PHEVs in North America in
2027, but has not yet confirmed vehicle segments.
Colorado/Canyon:
The Chevy Colorado and
GMC Canyon midsize pickups were redesigned
for the 2023 model year. Freshenings
are expected in 2027.
Tahoe/Suburban/Yukon/Yukon XL: Chevy
and GMC confirmed that the Tahoe and Suburban
and the Yukon full-size SUVs will be
freshened this year. The nameplates could be
redesigned in 2027 or 2028. GM last year committed
to spending more than $500 million to
update the Arlington, Texas, factory where the
vehicles are built for future gasoline-powered
SUV production. Like full-size pickups, GM's
large SUVs likely could get a plug-in hybrid
powertrain when they are redesigned, possibly
in 2028.
Traverse: Chevy redesigned the Traverse
large crossover early in 2024 with a more
truck-like appearance, larger screens, additional
safety features and its first-ever Z71 offroad
trim level for the 2024 model year. It's
likely to be freshened in 2027.
Acadia: GMC redesigned the Acadia large
crossover in the first half of 2024, with production
moving from Spring Hill, Tenn., back to
the Lansing Delta Township plant in Michigan
where it initially was built alongside the Chevrolet
Traverse and Buick Enclave. The Acadia
is now larger, wider and taller after the threeHONDA
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from Page 4
pent-up demand for the brands, said Stephanie
Brinley, an auto analyst at S&P Global Mobility.
" The
difficult time wasn't necessarily because
the product wasn't aligned. It had much
more to do with what was happening externally, "
Brinley said.
But the automaker is still lagging pre-COVID
levels. American Honda sales peaked at 1.64
million in 2017 and consistently topped 1.6
million from 2016 to 2019.
Brinley said increasing competition will make
it hard for Honda to return to that volume.
" The market is more competitive than it ever was,
and it keeps getting more competitive, " she said.
" A new factor compared to five years ago is
the increase in battery-electric vehicles, " Brinley
said. " Even though that growth is slowing
down, it's still growing, which creates a lot
more choice for the customer. "
Loyalty-focused
America Honda remains focused on loyalty
in a smaller market.
" The industry is dealing with lower volumes
than we sold [pre-COVID], and we all rely on
some of that repeat buyer, " Woelfer said.
" Our approach is focused on making sure we
make it as easy as possible for a loyal Honda or Acura
customer to come back to our brand, " he said.
Woelfer also said the Honda brand wants to
maintain a 30-day supply on lots, a discipline
derived from the low-inventory environment
the industry encountered in the wake of the
pandemic. Acura could trend higher because
of the lower volume, he said.
" It may vary above or below, but we'll keep
within the window that we've established, "
Woelfer said.
Honda had a 47-day supply on July 1, while
Acura stood at 66.
With interest rates elevated, Woelfer said he
does not want to burden dealers with high carrying
costs.
EVs
Both brands are poised to benefit from incremental
sales from their first new-era electric
vehicles, the Honda Prologue and Acura ZDX.
Prologue deliveries started at the end of April,
with ZDX sales following in May.
Honda initially projected the Prologue would
reach 40,000 sales in its first year. But Woelfer
said because deliveries started later than
planned, sales are still ramping up. He did not
give projections for the ZDX.
Woelfer said most dealers nationwide have
now received the Prologue. Honda has been
using a tiered approach to its EV rollout, allocating
them first to dealers in zero-emission
vehicle states.
" We're seeing there is a level of BEV demand in
pretty much every market, but it does vary, " he said.
" Our dealers should be making sure every
customer knows that we've got an electrified
vehicle available and has the opportunity to
consider it. "
Honda's ups and downs
Honda was among the automakers hardest hit by the microchip shortage following the
COVID-19 outbreak. Even with up to a 10% increase in U.S. sales projected this year, total
Honda and Acura brand volume will remain below prepandemic highs.
Acura
Honda
2000 total: 1,158,860
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
2023 total: 1,308,186
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Source: Automotive News Research & Data Center
row crossover stepped down in size for the
preceding generation. It's likely to be freshened
in 2027.
Blazer: Production of Chevy's gasoline-powered
midsize crossover is expected to end in
2025, with no next-generation replacement.
Equinox/Terrain: The pair of redesigned
compact crossovers go on sale this year. They
could be freshened in 2027 or 2028.
Trailblazer: Chevrolet's South Korea-built
subcompact crossover was freshened last year.
A redesign is likely in 2026.
Trax: Chevy launched the Trax subcompact
crossover last year, a complete redesign for the
nameplate. All trims start below $25,000 with
shipping. It's expected to be freshened in 2026.
Corvette: The gasoline-powered Corvette
and its hybrid E-Ray variant could be due for a
redesign in 2028.
Camaro: Production ended this year. Chevy
has not confirmed plans to replace the sports
car but said it was " not the end of Camaro's
story. " Details of a possible successor are unclear.
Malibu:
GM confirmed that production of its
only remaining Chevy sedan will end in November
as the Kansas assembly plant where it
is built is retooled to accommodate Bolt EV
production.
Express/Savana: No updates to the gasoline-powered
Chevy Express and GMC Savana
full-size commercial vans are expected before
2028. Future electric vans could be handled by
GM's BrightDrop electric commercial delivery
van brand.
CADILLAC
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Cadillac spokesperson said customer delivery timelines
will vary based on the level of personalization.
Electric sedan: Forecasters say one electric sedan
comparable in size to the gasoline-powered CT5
could go on sale in 2028, to be built at the Lansing
Grand River Assembly plant in Michigan that builds
the CT4 and CT5 sedans.
Escalade/Escalade ESV: The Escalade full-size
SUV and the longer-wheelbase Escalade ESV will be
freshened in the second half of this year and could be redesigned
in 2027. Last year, GM said it will invest more
than $500 million in the Arlington, Texas, plant that
builds the Escalade models for future SUV production. A
plug-in hybrid Escalade variant is possible in 2028.
XT6: Cadillac's largest crossover is expected to end
production in 2025 or 2026, though it could be extended.
XT5:
The midsize crossover is slated to go out of
production in 2025 or 2026, though Cadillac could
continue it.
XT4: GM said it will idle production of the compact
crossover from January 2025 until late next year. The
hiatus will allow the automaker to retool the Fairfax
Assembly plant in Kansas to build the new Chevrolet
Bolt EV alongside the XT4, which was freshened in
2023. Production could end in 2026.
CT5: Cadillac's midsize sedan received a facelift for
the 2025 model year. Production could end in 2026
but, like other gasoline-powered nameplates, its run
could continue.
CT4: The compact sedan could be phased out in
2025 or 2026, though that timeline could be extended.

Automotive News - July 22, 2024

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