Automotive News Europe - September 22, 2010 - 50

Automotive News Europe | Final Word

Luca Ciferri is a Senior Reporter with Automotive News Europe. He can be reached at lciferri@crain.com.

Eleven things to watch for in 2011
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Chinese automakers One day they may dominate the world, but that day will not come in 2011. Despite having brands such as Brilliance, Geely, Great Wall, Lifan, SAIC and Shuanghuan here, the Chinese are non-players with a European market share of 0.07 percent through July. To put it another way, the Chinese sell as many cars here in a year as VW Group does in a day. Don’t expect much from the Chinese in Europe next year. Residual values If you believe the Mayan calendar, the world will be forever changed on December 21, 2012. So why should anyone worry about residuals? Russia From hot to not: Russia was on its way to overtaking Germany as Europe’s leading car market before sales halved to 1.5 million in 2009 due to the economic crisis. Russia sales are on pace to reach 1.7 million in 2010. It is difficult to disagree with predictions that new-car sales will rise to 2 million in 2011. Saab The Swedish brand that General Motors sold for “the price of a wind tunnel” to Dutch sports car maker Spyker Cars has already lowered its sales expectations for 2010. Next year will be crucial for Saab because unless its recovery plan gains traction fast, its unit sales and profitability targets for 2012 will not be achieved. Toyota Considered a “flawless execution machine” by many competitors, Toyota’s once bullet-proof reputation for quality has been hurt by a recall of more than 12 million cars worldwide. In Europe, Toyota also is suffering from poor product planning. The Yaris Verso wasn’t replaced so Toyota missed out on 2009’s fourfold sales increase in the small minivan segment. European compact-car buyers want a station wagon variant, but the Auris only comes as a hatchback. Toyota jumps back into the small minivan segment in 2011 with the Verso-S, but without an Auris wagon its sales will continue to suffer next year.

ext year is expected to be a year of transition for the European auto industry. That means many companies will be switching from survival mode to growth mode. Here is a look at the people, companies and topics we see making news in 2011.

Audi The Volkswagen Group subsidiary has been Europe’s best-selling premium brand since 2009, but worldwide it continues to trail BMW brand and Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz. Audi aims to be the No. 1 premium automaker by 2015, but many suspect that Audi could get there much sooner, largely because of its leading position in the world’s largest auto market, China. Through eight months, China has become Audi’s No. 1 sales market by passing Germany (152,782 to 144,365). With continued success in China, more growth in the U.S. market (sales were up 25 percent after eight months) and sustained leadership in Europe, 2011 could be a historic year at Audi.

Formula One The race series has become the world’s most boring motor sports event. BMW, Honda and Toyota are gone; Renault has halved its involvement. Meanwhile, the 24 Hours of Le Mans is gaining in popularity because of a tense rivalry between Audi and Peugeot. F1 must become more compelling in 2011 or risk losing more fans.

CO2 Next year will be crucial for automakers and suppliers as they make final fuel-saving upgrades so that new cars can meet Europe’s tougher CO2 target. Starting in 2012, 65 percent of automakers’ new-car sales in the EU must meet a fleet average of 130 grams of CO2 per kilometer. By 2015, the CO2 fleet average for all new cars must be at or below 130g/km, which is not an easy goal given that the fleet average was 145.9g/km last year, according to market researcher JATO Dynamics. An even tougher challenge looms in 2020 when the EU’s CO2 target is 95g/km. To meet that challenge, German automakers are lobbying to have fuelsipping motorcycles and scooters added to their fleet averages. BMW’s Mini brand and Daimler’s Smart subsidiary already are investing in such models. Each brand is debuting an electricpowered scooter in Paris. We’ll see more and more out-of-the-box solutions to reduce CO2 starting in 2011.

We will see whether Ghosn’s EV gamble was a risk worth taking or an electric shock.

Ghosn Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn has bet heavily to put his alliance at the forefront of electric mobility. After the Nissan Leaf and Renault Fluence arrive next year, we will see whether Ghosn’s gamble was a risk worth taking or an electric shock.

R: recovery or recession? There are conflicting views on what western Europe’s new-car sales will be like in 2011. Bankers at Goldman Sachs forecast a half-million-unit recovery next year with total sales of 13.3 million. Analysts at J.D. Power and Associates expect the recession to continue, with sales down to 12.56 million units in 2011 from the 12.73 million expected this year.

Winterkorn VW Group CEO Martin Winterkorn’s employment contract is expected to be extended until the end of 2014. Winterkorn’s goal is make VW Group the world’s top-selling automaker by 2018. Many expect the CEO, who turns 65 in May 2012, to achieve the lofty goal before retiring. A purchase of another automaker, such as Alfa Romeo, is certainly possible in 2011. ■

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