Automotive News Canada - October 2021 - 40

40
* OCTOBER 2021
Gradual EV uptake, gradual grid upgrade
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1
by 2030 and 1.2 million by 2040. Its
2030 estimate for EVs is 8.2 per cent
of the roughly 8.5 million new and
used light-duty vehicles that Statistics
Canada said were registered in Ontario
in 2020.
And the federal government's new
50-per-cent ZEV sales target for 2030
is only the halfway point. This June,
Ottawa moved up its 100 per cent ZEV
adoption goal by five years, now aiming
to have ZEVs account for 100 per cent of
annual light-duty sales by 2035.
But even if gasoline and diesel sales
end by the middle of the decade, it will
take considerably longer for EVs to
replace all vehicles on the road.
IESO is working the advancing federal
targets into its updated 2021 forecast,
Farmer said.
" We'll have to look at what are the
signals that this will actually make its
way into policy and be implementable
as a policy and start to put in place the
plans, " he said, adding that meeting
higher power demands would likely
mean building new generation plants
and upgrading transmission lines.
NO MAJOR GRID INVESTMENTS
In Quebec, the country's second-largest
auto market by number of vehicles,
Hydro-Quebec is weighing more aggressive
expectations than other power distributors.
The province's 26,102 new
EV registrations in 2020 account for
6.8 per cent of all new Quebec motor
vehicle sales and nearly half of all new
Canadian EV sales. The public utility is
planning for 1.5 million total ZEVs on
the road by 2030.
Data from Statistics Canada shows
that about 5.5 million light-duty vehicles
were registered in Quebec in 2020.
Not adjusting for slow growth in total
vehicle ownership through the 2020s,
1.5 million EVs would make up nearly
27 per cent of Quebec vehicles by 2030.
No major transmission or distribution
changes will be needed to make
it most of the way to that target, said
Louis-Olivier Batty, a spokesman for
Hydro-Quebec.
Batty: Quebec
Hydro doesn't
" see any
issues " with
the grid
supplying
power for
increasing EV
use.
PHOTO:
LINKEDIN
" We don't see any issues. We will
be able to provide the
electricity, the energy,
for one million electric
vehicles without any
major investments in
our network. "
But as EVs take
up a larger share of
the market later this
decade, he said, work
will likely be needed.
What form will depend
on how EV efficiency
improves and how
demands on the grid
evolve, Batty said.
On the West Coast,
BC Hydro is planning
for 635,000 EVs by
2030, around 20 per cent of the 3.1 million
light-duty vehicles on the road in
2020. As with Hydro-Quebec, the Crown
utility said it is prepared to generate
and distribute enough power to meet
the demands of the hundreds of thousands
of additional EVs.
TARGETS AMBITIOUS
From a power perspective,
BC Hydro, Hydro Quebec and
the IESO expect that every one
million electric cars connected
to the grid will consume
about three terawatt-hours
(tWh). Electricity generation
in Canada sat at 635.6 tWh
in 2020. That means electrifying
all light-duty vehicles
would increase national power
demands by about 11 per cent,
based on 2020 generation and
light-duty vehicle stock of 23.5 million.
Ottawa's new EV sales targets are
ambitious, but the power grid should
be able to absorb the shift, said Saeed
Kaddoura, a senior analyst on the
clean-economy team at the Pembina
Institute, a Calgary-based clean enerHydro-Quebec
will make sure
you have a full charge at 7
[a.m.]. But maybe we're going
to start charging your electric
vehicle at 9 or 10 p.m., when
we're out of the peak hours.
LOUIS-OLIVIER BATTY
Hydro-Quebec
gy think tank. One concern, he said, is
managing the two daily peaks.
" It's when everybody's getting ready
for work and when everybody just got
home and is cooking their dinner, "
Kaddoura said.
Kaddoura:
Can the grid
handle two
power peaks?
PHOTO:
LINKEDIN
EVs can worsen the evening peak
because many drivers simply plug in
when they arrive home from work.
Hydro-Quebec is currently piloting
smart chargers capable of delaying
charging while ensuring
that vehicles are ready for the
morning commute, Batty said.
" You expect to have a full
charge - let's say, at 7 in the
morning. So, you plug [in] your
car, Hydro-Quebec will make
sure you have a full charge at
7 in the morning. But maybe
we're going to start charging
your electric vehicle at 9 or 10
p.m., when we're out of the peak
hours. "
Pricing incentives that
prompt consumers to adjust their habits
are another avenue. BC Hydro is
consulting with residential customers
about optional time-of-day rates, which
would offer cheaper power during offpeak
times. Hydro-Quebec and the
IESO are looking at similar approaches.
RETAIL FORUM: DEALER DISCUSSIONS
Inventory: Customers are 'shockingly' patient
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 37
where we do sell from stock, obviously,
but there is a higher propensity of presales
that come in, " Milette said.
Inventory is one of several areas on
which automakers and dealers will likely
be collaborating. With the rush to get vehicles
from the lot to customer driveways
as quickly as possible, Carmichael said,
the shortages have given dealers and automakers
more common ground than ever.
" I've never worked as closely with the
[automakers] as we are today to ultimately
look after the customer, " Carmichael said.
And despite the supply problems, he
said, looking after buyers has proved to be
relatively straightforward.
" Customers are being extremely - and,
frankly, shockingly - patient and understanding
from a sales-floor experience. "
UpAuto has put frequent, clear and
proactive communication at the top of its
agenda. Integral to that is being upfront
with customers about the problems it
faces and avoiding overpromising to try to
lock in sales, Carmichael said.
" If we're trying to save an interaction
and perhaps avoid conflict, it's only going
to kick us in the rear end. "
Meanwhile, to adjust to the emerging
trend of being able to interact with
customers whenever and wherever they
want to buy, Milette said that early in
the pandemic, Nissan accelerated new
offerings such as home test drives, home
shopping and its virtual showroom. The
suite of tools will help customers get better
acquainted with vehicles as inventory
problems drag into 2022.
Dealers and automakers should not
expect much relief on the chip shortage
before the middle of next year, said Sam
Fiorani, vice-president of global vehicle
forecasting at U.S.-based AutoForecast
Solutions.
" This isn't something we can turn
around quickly, " Fiorani said, noting
that more than 10 million vehicles have
been removed from production schedules
worldwide this year.
And with vehicles only getting more
complex, the auto industry's chip demands
will only keep rising, Fiorani said.
" Hopefully, " he said, " the industry
learns from this and brings [chip production]
onshore so that we can avoid other
problems that might pop up, like a viral
outbreak or regional strife, or potential
trade issues that could halt importation of
parts from anywhere in the world. "
- ANC
Survey finds only 3% of respondents
want 100% digital car buying
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 37
the dealership, compared with 18
per cent who prefer a " partially
digital process " and three per cent
who want a completely digital
sales process.
Although showrooms will
remain important, what customers
see as they walk into
them could change, said Michael
Wyant, COO of the Wyant Group
in western Canada.
" Do we need to have showrooms
built to accommodate
every model of every vehicle that
we sell? Or should we be doing
things to enhance the customer
experience when they arrive? "
Wyant said. " We know the vehicle
that the customer's looking
at before they arrive at our dealership.
It's probably not the one
that's sitting in the showroom.
And there's a lot of things that we
could do to enhance that customer
experience that [is] not part of our
design today. "
Likewise, dealers should
expect changes to customers'
expectations of the service department.
The Deloitte survey found
that just 27 per cent of respondents
indicated that amenities
or experiences such as a kids'
playroom or a coffee shop were
important for the service process,
trailing far behind rapid checkin
and checkout and real-time
updates on vehicle service.
Shahin Alizadeh, CEO of
the Downtown Auto Group in
Toronto, said one of his luxury
stores was outfitted with a lounge
and chef's kitchen about 10 years
ago, " in anticipation that there
would be a trend " toward those
amenities becoming standard.
But, they haven't, he said.
" I didn't, quite frankly, see the
traction. I didn't see people flocking
to our lounge and saying, you
know, give me your latest and
greatest recipe of the day. ...
" I think maybe a dozen years
ago, we all thought that was the
trend. I no longer believe that
there is any value in that. " - ANC
INTELLIGENT GRID
Longer term, smart grids could
smooth out these demand peaks and
cut down on the amount of energy
consumed, said Claude El-Bayeh, a
post-doctoral fellow in the department
of electrical and computer engineering
at Concordia University in Montreal.
" There's progress, but it's in the
early stage, " he said, pointing to a
range of research and development
in energy management systems for
homes and businesses, dynamic electricity
pricing and bidirectional
charging. The latter
would give EVs the
ability to discharge
their batteries to feed
the grid at peak times.
But El-Bayeh estimates
it may take up
to 50 years to transition
to a fully intelligent
grid.
" I do not want to be
pessimistic about the
time, but more realistic, "
he said.
In the interim,
local power distribution
is likely to prove
troublesome as more
El-Bayeh: It
might take up
to 50 years
to transition
to a fully
intelligent
grid.
PHOTO:
LINKEDIN
EVs plug in, El-Bayeh said. He pointed
to pole-mounted transformers as
one example. In Montreal, transformers
often serve about 10 houses. If all
of them tried to charge an EV at the
same time, El-Bayeh said, it could
result in serious infrastructure
damage.
The problem is likely to lead to significant
adjustments for local distribution
companies (LDCs), which are
responsible for delivering power to
consumer sockets in Ontario, said the
IESO's Farmer.
" [If] you get four or five different
electric vehicles trying to charge on
one transformer, that would exceed
the transformer capabilities, " he said.
" So I think LDCs are ... taking this
very seriously. " - ANC
Automotive News Canada - October 2021

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