Automotive News Canada - August 2022 - 31

* AUGUST 2022
31
Predicting parts failure before failure APMA's design
Canadian company's
research could lead
to early warnings
for customers that
prompt them to
'pre-emptively
seek maintenance
or repairs'
By DAVID KENNEDY
T ORONTO BUREAU CHIEF
FOR THE ARTIFICIALintelligence
(AI) company
Acerta Analytics Solutions Inc.,
the end of the production line
has always been the stopping
point.
But as the five-year-old
industrial tech firm scales up,
a new predictive-maintenance
project with Nissan Motor
Corp. will extend Acerta's reach
from the shop floor to vehicles
on the open road.
The Kitchener, Ont., company
has made a name for itself
writing sophisticated algorithms
to parse reams of production
data for the likes of
Dana Inc., ZF Friedrichshafen
and BorgWarner Inc., helping
the auto suppliers increase efficiency
while improving part
quality.
The new research partnership
represents a different kind
of " big-data problem, " said
CEO Greta Cutulenco. But it's
one that Acerta is perfectly
equipped to handle.
" In our solutions on the production
floor, we're monitoring
hundreds of signals all the
time and running these analyses
against them. And that's
really our core capability, having
this ability to monitor and
launch machine-learning (ML)
models against this big data
that's available from the manufacturers. "
The
difference when it comes
to leveraging machine-learning
technology is ... you're really
looking at the behaviour
of the data to become
more predictive.
GRETA CUTULENCO
CEO, Acerta Analytics Solutions Inc.
The collaborative work with
Nissan, Cutulenco said, simply
exchanges the data points
from manufacturing equipment
for signals from up to 250 components
beneath the hood of a
Nissan vehicle.
FIX BEFORE PROBLEMS OCCUR
The $1.4-million project,
announced June 22, focuses on
predicting failures within the
powertrain. Piggybacking on
data already being collected by
sensors embedded in engine
components, Acerta is developing
the algorithms to identify
problems with individual parts
before they become problems.
" The goal has been to look at
that data and use ML and AI to
start predicting the wear patterns
of those components and
ultimately the failure pattern so
that we can help Nissan become
much more proactive in how
they're identifying problems, "
Cutulenco said.
Acerta, which employs about
35 people, has been working
with Nissan's research centre
in Yokohama, Japan, in a limited
capacity for the past couple
of years. The small projects
have now become a large one,
Cutulenco said.
Nissan Canada is not directly
involved in the project.
The provincially funded
Ontario Vehicle Innovation
Network (OVIN) helped catalyze
the collaborative work, supplementing
contributions from
Acerta and Nissan that totaled
about $1 million, with $344,000 in
government funding.
The research could lead to
early warnings for customers
that prompt them to " pre-emptively
seek maintenance or
repairs, " said Kazuhiro Doi,
a corporate vice-president at
Nissan.
MORE ENLIGHTENED THAN LIGHTS
The predictive algorithms
will be far more insightful than
conventional warnings such as
check-engine lights, Cutulenco
said. Unlike typical diagnostic
trouble codes that look for specific
indicators before lighting up
the dashboard - such as the cylinder
misfire count's exceeding
a predetermined threshold - AI
models are not restrained by the
same sort of tunnel vision, she
said.
" The difference when it comes
to leveraging machine-learning
technology is you're becoming
less so driven by these specific
rules ... and you're really looking
at the behaviour of the data to
become more predictive. "
Instead of flagging the problems
after they have occurred, as
a misfire counter does, Acerta's
continual watch over the data
will allow it to track underlying
trends and variability to pinpoint
problems before they have
surfaced, Cutulenco said.
Acerta has taken some lessons
learned on predictive vehicle
maintenance from heavy-equipment
and truck manufacturers
that have been exploring similar
solutions. But the space remains
" ripe for innovation, " Cutulenco
said.
The company expects the
first six months of the project
to concentrate on data collection.
Acerta will then turn its
attention to putting out its initial
algorithm and testing subsequent
versions.
'NATURAL PROGRESSION'
While the project is the company's
first major step into a
new market segment, that does
not mean it is abandoning the
in-plant machine-learning technology
that has fueled its early
growth.
" We're definitely focusing
most of our product effort in
scaling within manufacturing
operations, " she said, " but I
think this is a natural progression
in completing this digital
thread of monitoring for every
vehicle and part that's being
produced. "
The project with Nissan
is scheduled to run about 18
months, but it is likely just a
starting point for Acerta's work
with predictive maintenance.
" We're going to be focusing
predominantly on the powertrain
for now, " Cutulenco said,
" But definitely things like suspension,
things like EV batteries,
over time, are something we
want to extend this to. " - ANC
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 9
said of the finalists.
Lildhar, a member of the winning
team, called the entire process
" an excellent opportunity to
combine the skills we have been
learning for the past four years
at Humber College for Industrial
Design and apply them to the
APMA design competition. "
But it wasn't easy.
" Designing a vehicle focused on
inclusivity for people with disabilities
had its challenges, " Lildhar
said. " Our team had gone through
multiple iterations in both exterior
and interior design and learned
Autodesk Alias
along the way to
model the vehicle.
" We were
Volpe:
" Imagine
having this
on your
resume? "
FILE PHOTO
able to produce
a concept that is
unique in design,
with a focus on
accessible mobility
that is often
overlooked in private
transportation. "
The
vehicle can
lower ride height
for mobility-impaired
users and
has side ramp lighting. It also has
more inclusive driving controls,
such as a steering knob, accelerator
ring and a brake lever. The
front seats can be stowed to allow
for a wheelchair.
The win brings opportunity,
Lildhar said.
" As Canadian transportation
design students, getting sponsored
work or internships during school
can be limited, " he said, " so being
able to add [this] to our portfolios
will hopefully open up some new
doors in the design field. "
Volpe agrees.
" Imagine having this on your
resume? " - ANC
iZEV rebates are not make or break for many buyers
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 3
actually be [priced] to qualify for the
iZEV program. "
" [Automakers] are now bringing new
electrified versions of SUVs and pickup
trucks into the market, " he said.
" We expect these to be very, very popular
vehicles. But as it stands right now,
very few, if any of them, will actually
be [priced] to qualify for the iZEV program. "
Beginning
in April, zero-emission
passenger cars with base-models below
$55,000, and variants priced up to $65,000,
qualified for incentives. That's a $10,000
increase for each from the previous
framework.
Larger vehicles - such as SUVs, minivans
and pickups - with base prices
below $60,000 and variants priced up
to $70,000 will qualify. Previously, the
base-model price threshold was $55,000,
and the vehicles were required to have
seven or more seats.
MONTHLY PAYMENTS MATTER
The 44 per cent of ZEVs purchased
in the first quarter that were ineligible
for rebates suggests the iZEV program
is not make-or-break for many buyers,
however. Hugo Jeanson, general manager
of Bourgeois Chevrolet-BuickGMC,
said it comes down to cost.
" It's all a calculation of monthly
payments, " he
said. " Most people
are doing the switch
for EVs . . . because
it makes monetary
sense. "
At his dealership in
Rawdon, Que., north
of Montreal, federal
and $7,000 provincial
incentives apply
to every Chevrolet
Bolt EV and Bolt EUV,
Jeanson said. This
helps make the math
swing more favourably
toward EVs.
But even for costlier
models that would not
qualify, the Quebec
dealer has little doubt
that consumers are
ready to switch.
Jeanson:
" Most people
are doing
the switch
for EVs not
because
it's a green
alternative
but because
it makes
monetary
sense. "
PHOTO:
FACEBOOK
The dealership has already tallied
hundreds of orders for pricier upcoming
models such as the GMC Hummer EV
and higher trim levels of the Chevrolet
Silverado EV, Jeanson said.
" I think with the price of gas right now,
the truck customers really are looking to
an alternative to be able to save on gas, " he
said.
BUYERS NEED FEDS' HELP
But David Adams, president of the Global
Automakers of Canada, is not convinced
that most buyers are ready to make the
upfront investment in a ZEV without assistance
from Ottawa.
" You're always going to have that segment
of the market that is going to purchase
the technology no matter what the cost, "
Adams said. Others simply would be unable
to afford it, he added.
" There's a lot of consumers that aren't in
that circumstance, where they can afford to
pay $200, $300 more a month for newer technology. "
Given
that more than one in three ZEVs
sold last year in Canada did not get a federal
incentive, " you've got to zoom out and look
at that from a macro perspective, " said the
CVMA's Kingston. Because ZEV sales for
2021 totaled only 5.6 per cent of overall sales,
he said, the percentage of Canadians willing
to move forward on a ZEV without an incentive
remains a relatively small group.
Ensuring ZEVs are accessible for the
IZEV INCENTIVES AND
TOTAL CANADIAN ZEV SALES
iZEV
incentives
awarded
Total ZEVs
registered
2019* 22,727 28,444 80%
2020 39,020 54,353 72%
2021 54,515 86,032 63%
2022† 14,438 26,018 56%
*Includes only July to December,
following the launch of the iZEV program
†Includes only January to March, the most
recent quarter available
Source: Statistics Canada, Transport Canada
iZEV-covered
registrations
challenge was
indeed a challenge
wider market will require a larger incentive that
applies to more vehicles, Kingston said.
" If the transition is going to work for everybody,
including median-income households, the only
way to put that in reach is to help bring the price
down. " - ANC
Automotive News Canada - August 2022

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