Shift Magazine - Issue 2 2018 - 25

Rise of the

MACHINES
Job killers or creators?
BY HANNAH LUTZ

ere's a conundrum for society: History has shown that the more
we use computers and automation for common tasks, the fewer
jobs there are for people.
Take self-driving vehicles. Will we need taxi or truck drivers
if vehicles can drive themselves? Will we need insurance agents if cars
don't get into accidents? And what about the sales force - will anyone
need to kick tires and test drive vehicles if the vehicles are automated?
A study released last year by McKinsey Global Institute said automation
could eliminate 800 million jobs worldwide by 2030. Some are floating the
idea of a universal minimum income; others think robot taxation would help.
Today, some government agencies that partner with industry on mobility are trying to address these questions before they become pain points.
The immediate problem facing most regions: preparing people for the
high-tech jobs the auto industry is starting to demand.
We talked to economic development and business leaders for their
takes on the tension between high-tech progress and jobs.

NEW ROLES

Jeff Spain,
supervisor in work
force innovation
at Columbus
State Community
College

BUDGET CONSTRAINTS

Cheryl Hay,
director of project
talent acquisition
for JobsOhio

JOB TRAINING NEEDED

Jordan Davis,
director of Smart
Columbus

"We have seen announcements from Honda that they
will be manufacturing electric vehicles in Columbus.
... But that translates to a shift away from what was
being built to a new way of building. I hope there are
job pivots, but we really need to compete from a labor
market to ensure that's the case. ...
"There's a whole new set of jobs that emerge
[from autonomous vehicles]. ... I am confident that a
bus driver today will become a bus operator. Jobs are
going to pivot with lots of new skills and new training,
but I am optimistic that there will be more jobs added."

JOBS CREATED NOW

Grady Irey,
vice president
of data science
for analytics
company Arity

"There is a great public discourse around what
machine learning and artificial intelligence will do to the
work force. At this point in time, the initial movement
is in job creation, although that job creation is largely in
areas of data science, of computer science. ...
"If you break out employment into areas of repetitive versus nonrepetitive work and cognitive versus
noncognitive work, if one is doing repetitive, noncognitive work, that's more likely to at some point be
impacted in a negative way by artificial intelligence
and machine learning. I think if one is doing cognitive
work that is not repetitive, they are the least likely to
be impacted in a negative way."

"While some positions have been replaced by automation, it created new positions. A good example of
that is some of the line positions in manufacturing
where they were manual positions that now have
been replaced by automation. ...
"What we wouldn't have had several years ago is
that person setting up the machine, maintaining the
machine, making sure the machine is interacting with
other components. Something we wouldn't have
thought of five years ago is the Internet of Things.
How can we monitor how equipment is doing from
our smartphone? That's a different skill set to make
sure that machine is operating than we would have
needed 10 years ago."

"You always have manufacturers who are looking for
ways to make things faster and take their talent pool
and move them into more critical areas. If there are
things that can be automated, they are always looking
at how can that be done so that the talent can be used
where it's really needed.
"But automation costs money. We have some
sectors that are at a point with their growth strategy where they can put money into automation and
experiment with it. And for some, that's just not the
current strategy. Dollars are going toward product
development or other things right now. It's coming
into play, but it's very company-specific."

NEW OPPORTUNITIES

Kevin O'Malley,
managing deputy
commissioner
for the Chicago
Department of
Transportation

"Technology is creating a new type of job, but there is
definitely a change in need that could be a real opportunity for people, whether it's software or electrical
engineers working on traffic systems, pedestrian
safety.
"There is a lot of opportunity there that can also be
created. I don't think anybody has a formula that says
we lose this many jobs. It provides new efficiencies
and new types of work."

Eric Phillips,
Union CountyMarysville
economic
development
director

"Instead of the line worker, you're seeing a lot more
advancements in engineers. I think it's a transformation more so than it is replacement. Do I think that
because of automation there's going to be fewer
manufacturing jobs? Probably yes, but I also think that
you're going to see the attainment of their education
and training in these manufacturing jobs.
"I see more of a transformation in the jobs, but I think
there is going to be some type of reduction overall."

OVERALL REDUCTION

july 2018 * shift

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Shift Magazine - Issue 2 2018