Shift Magazine - December 2020 - 14

BY PETE BIGELOW

ven before the pandemic struck,
the fastest-growing commuting
pattern was for workers to have
no commute at all.
About 5 percent of Americans worked
primarily from home in 2018, according to
the Mercatus Center, a research nonprofit
at George Mason University. Working
from home outpaced public-transit use
that year, says traffic-analytics firm Inrix.
Of course, COVID-19 has transformed
remote work from a noteworthy trend
into a way of life. At peak disruption in
April, more than half of American workers worked remotely " always, " according
to a Gallup poll, a tenfold increase from
pre-pandemic times.
Whether the work-fromhome fervor endures or
fades once the coronavirus
sits in the rearview mirror
remains an open question.
Remote work is " very likely to continue, at least on a part-time basis, for
many people even after the lockdown
is lifted, " said Emily Hamilton, senior
research fellow at the Mercatus Center.
" That's going to likely mean less travel
during peak commuting hours, which is
a good thing for traffic congestion and
something state and local policymakers
will want to keep in mind when making
future road-building decisions. "
She co-authored a recent policy brief
that called on lawmakers and government leaders to capitalize on this COVID19 moment - to encourage long-term
work-from-home by removing local ordinances that discourage home-based
businesses, to invest in pedestrian- and
cyclist-friendly infrastructure and to
charge increased tolls at peak travel
times.
She suggests charging fees to enter
busy areas during rush hour may further
incentivize off-peak travel.
Might COVID-19 reduce commuting
by more than a few percentage points?
In April, vehicle miles traveled in the U.S.
dropped as much as 46 percent from
pre-pandemic levels, according to Inrix.

WHEN WORK
GOES OFF-ROAD

shift * december 2020

Telecommuting to continue after pandemic subsides,
but what are the long-term implications for traffic?

While travel overall began to rebound in
the summer, only 45 of the top 100 U.S.
metropolitan areas have fully rebounded,
per Inrix research issued in December.
Retail forecasts indicate more vehicles
are headed to U.S. roads. Workers have
shifted from public transit to personally
owned vehicles throughout the pandemic. A November report from global
consulting firm EY found 31 percent of
people who don't have a vehicle intend to
buy one in the next six months, a percentage that suggests traffic volumes and
congestion will increase when employees begin returning to their offices.
The nature of remote work may dim
prospects for sustaining reduced congestion over the long term.
As the pandemic dragged into
September, work-from-home fatigue
reached a crescendo. Nearly three-quarters of 2,000 remote workers who
responded to a survey from office
design company Vocon reported " digital overload. " More than half said their
work spread around the clock, and 1 in 3
blamed working from home for " feelings

of exhaustion. "
At the same time, 40 percent of
employers queried by Vocon reported
decreases in productivity. By comparison, 56 percent of business leaders said
productivity was " excellent " in April.
" That was a really big indicator for us
that things were starting to fracture, "
wrote Megan Spinos, director of strategy
for Vocon.
It's an early signal that a majority of
businesses will seek to bring workers
back to the office once the pandemic
subsides. Many employees will welcome
such a development. A September poll of
remote workers by Gallup found 35 percent prefer to work from home in perpetuity, but 35 percent yearn for a return to
the office.
Such preferences offer a promising, if
elusive, scenario: With smart incentives,
a significant number of remote workers
could enjoy the fruits of working from
home. And keeping them home may
clear roads for those who either want
or need to return to their pre-pandemic
commutes. n

Shift Magazine - December 2020

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