Shift Magazine - December 2020 - 21

&
QA

WITH
JEREMY MICHALEK

Electrification expert says California
policies are key to U.S. adoption of EVs

hen President-elect Joe
Biden takes office in January, his administration could
chart a path for encouraging
the adoption of electric vehicles in the
U.S. Biden, a Democrat who ran against
Republican President Donald Trump, has
touted an aggressive, $2 trillion climate
plan that includes tax credits for EVs and
additional charging stations nationwide.
The plan could help automakers that
are investing billions in new EVs. But
challenges such as the future trajectory
of oil prices, consumer preferences and
congressional gridlock could interrupt
the pace, according to Jeremy Michalek,
director of the Vehicle Electrification
Group at Carnegie Mellon University
in Pittsburgh. Staff Reporter Audrey
LaForest spoke with Michalek, 43,
about how the shifting political climate in
Washington could influence the path of
electrification. Here are edited excerpts.

Q: HOW MIGHT A BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION SWAY THE
ADOPTION OF EVS?
A: The president-elect has announced
actions that include the federal government increasing procurement of EVs,
tightening fuel-economy standards that
were weakened under the Trump administration and trying to get increased tax
credits for EV purchases and funds for
increasing public charging infrastructure.
A Biden administration is likely to stop
trying to prevent California from setting
its own policies. California's policies -
including mandates for automakers to
sell electric and hydrogen vehicles, as
well as stricter greenhouse gas emissions standards - have been some of

the biggest drivers for electrification.
The Trump administration tried to revoke
that waiver and prevent California from
setting its own standards. I expect the
Biden administration will reinstate the
waiver, and California will be a major
driver in what happens on the trajectory
of electrification.

Q: DESCRIBE THE RELATIONSHIP
BETWEEN WASHINGTON
POLICIES AND THE COUNTRY'S
TRANSITION TO EVS.
A: The fuel-economy standards have
done a lot to push emissions down from
the fleet, but when it comes to electrification, California's policies have played a
larger role than Washington.

Q: HOW MUCH INFLUENCE DOES
WASHINGTON HAVE OVER THE
NEXT FOUR YEARS?
A: The federal government could have a
substantial impact, but the larger factor
is the government allowing California and
the other states that follow California's policies to drive adoption through state policies. Those state policies have given the

mandates that have required automakers
to figure out how to sell EVs, and they've
also set tighter emissions standards that
have pressured automakers and the federal government to come to the negotiating table and work out what turned out to
be stricter fuel-economy standards under
the Obama administration. Unleashing
California and the other states to pursue
their policies may be the most consequential way the Biden administration changes
the adoption of EVs.

Q: WILL BIDEN'S EV/CLIMATE
POLICIES FACE LIMITS?
A: It depends. If Congress is divided,
then the plans that require congressional
action, like new funding and tax credits,
will likely face some resistance. There may
be either a compromise plan or inaction.
Whereas the actions that can be taken
directly within the administration - the
fuel-economy and greenhouse gas emissions standards, or federal procurement of
EVs - those are things the administration
could do without Congress.

Q: WHAT MIGHT A TRANSITION
TO EVS LOOK LIKE?
A: Future oil prices will matter a lot.
We're making continuous progress on
technologies - bringing costs down
and making batteries last longer - but
a breakthrough could change the game,
and we just don't know if that's coming.
Political changes - not just at the federal level, but at local levels - can affect
these things. Cultural shifts in the way
people understand the option of owning
an EV and the symbolism of that. The
symbolism really matters in how people
think about adoption. n
december 2020 * shift

Shift Magazine - December 2020

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