Shift Magazine - February 2022 - 16

AN AV IN EVERY
DRIVEWAY?
W
hen will consumers be
able to own vehicles that
allow them to be disengaged
from the driving process
and fully rely on automated systems
to get them where they need to go?
Some industry experts and consumers
feel that concept is a " Jetsons " -style
dream, while others believe it will be reality
sooner rather than later.
Correspondent Gail Kachadourian Howe
asked six industry experts for their perspectives
on the autonomous vehicle landscape
in 2035. Here are edited excerpts.
Q: BY 2035, WILL AVERAGE
CONSUMERS BE ABLE TO HAVE
A PERSONALLY OWNED, LEVEL
4 SELF-DRIVING CAR, MEANING
ONE RESTRICTED TO GEOFENCED
AREAS? WHY OR WHY NOT?
A: Carla Bailo, CEO, Center for Automotive
Research: I think so because
by then, we'll have the technology, the
mapping, and we'll probably have autonomous
zones, meaning only autonomous
vehicles would be allowed in those zones.
That's one of the things critical to success
when I say yes. When you put a
Level 4 vehicle with a human-driven vehicle,
there are so many different combinations
and permutations of potential situations,
it becomes extremely difficult to do
that programming.
The caveat is they are going to be
darn expensive. It's going to be limited
to those people who can afford them. A
lot of people are saying they will first be
in delivery service, the trucking industry
and others that never have downtime.
You can keep them on the road and perhaps
recoup the cost.
There are still all the issues of law,
16 shift * february 2022
BAILO
liability, insurance and policies in general
that surround the operation of these
products that are still up in the air.
6 views on just how
far a self-driving
future could take us
Jeremy Carlson, principal analyst,
IHS Markit: By 2035, I think technology
will advance enough that the capability
will be there for a vehicle to drive itself
without supervision in some defined
area. An average consumer may or
may not have access to that technology
because a key question is going to be the
cost of the technology and the vehicle.
Much more likely: We have fleets that
operate in a service format.
Cost and benefits are key questions for
the average consumer because these [vehicles]
will not be able to drive in all circumstances.
How much can we reasonably
expect an average consumer to invest in
additional technology that may only be available
in relatively specific circumstances?
Shift Magazine - February 2022

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