Crains New York - June 24, 2013 - (Page 11)
What world are the
candidates living in?
S
ome of our mayoral candidates are living in a parallel
universe to the New York City I know. There may be
a gulf between what they say now and how they would
actually govern. But I must take them at their word,
and many of their words are scary to our city’s future.
To appeal to the city’s vast number of renters, Christine
Quinn, John Liu and Bill de Blasio all showed up at a Rent
Guidelines Board hearing to argue for a rent freeze. If owners’
costs are going up, too bad for them.
These candidates are fine with taking
money from other people’s pockets.
Mr. Liu and Mr. de Blasio also
support a more direct reach into the
pockets of those earning $500,000
or more by raising their city income
taxes. They know that there are far
more people below than above that
line. The numbers work for them.
The candidates are in a bind on labor issues, where the numbers don’t
work for anyone. All city employees
have expired contracts. Their union
leaders will take their chances with a
new mayor rather than negotiate with
Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Retroactive raises would cost up to $7.8 billion, money the city does not have.
The candidates know this, and most
duck the issue, saying they won’t negotiate in public. But Mr. Liu has
promised at least partial pay,saying he
ALAIR TOWNSEND
could fund part of it by slashing consultant contracts. Really? Only Joe
Lhota among the major candidates
has ruled out retroactive pay.
Another significant labor cost is
that few city workers or retirees pay
anything for their health insurance
coverage—in contrast to private-
It’ll be a two-person
race for mayor
O
f course there will be a runoff in the Democratic race for mayor. After all, goes the thinking,
there are four major candidates with at least 15%
in the latest Quinnipiac poll, plus John Liu lurking with 6%. With support from a mere quarter
of the voters, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn seems unlikely to reach the magic 40% figure needed to win the primary
on Sept. 10.
Actually,there is a good chance there
won’t be a runoff. History tells us so.
Consider 1989, when the Democratic primary was regarded as a
competitive four-way contest between a damaged Ed Koch, Manhattan Borough President David
Dinkins, longtime and respected
city Comptroller Harrison Goldin
and civic leader Richard Ravitch.
Mr. Dinkins led for most of the
summer, Mr. Koch surged, and
Messrs. Ravitch and Goldin tried to
build on their strong press. Mr.
Dinkins won without a runoff because Mr. Ravitch got a whopping
4% and Mr. Goldin 3%.
The same pattern—let’s call it
the August fade—happened in
2001. For most of the year, Mayor
Rudy Giuliani endlessly attacked
city Comptroller Alan Hevesi, who
was regarded as a strong candidate
GREG DAVID
because he was supported by the
teachers’ union. In early August,
polls gave Public Advocate Mark
Green 36% of the vote. Mr. Hevesi
and City Council Speaker Peter
Vallone were in the high teens, and
Bronx Borough President Fernando
Ferrer trailed with 14%.
sector workers and virtually every other government employee in the country. Only Anthony Weiner and Mr.
Lhota among the major candidates
firmly call for employee cost-sharing.
What may shape our future more
than any issue is policing strategies
to ensure that New York remains the
safest big city. Many of us remember
when it wasn’t. Fear kept visitors,
businesses and young people away.
Public safety is the prerequisite to
everything else we value.
And here, the candidates are
overwhelmingly opposed to current
police methods, notably stop, question and frisk. Opponents charge
that minority men, especially young
men,
are
disproportionately
stopped. The police commissioner
uses a state-of-the-art crimetracking system to deploy resources,
which results in disproportionate
stops in the highest-crime areas.
Those proactive measures stop many
crimes before they occur. The drop
in crime supports these methods.
Most of the candidates—with
Bill Thompson and Mr. Lhota being exceptions—want to secondguess the commissioner by installing an inspector general or
agreeing to a federal monitor for the
department and make dramatic
changes in police strategies. Those
will hamstring departmental leadership and result in an upsurge in
crime that will harm us all.
The city’s strength can easily be
undone by bad policies, such as
those advocated by many of the candidates. The prospect is horrifying.
Then Al Sharpton endorsed Mr.
Ferrer, whose campaign caught fire.
Messrs. Hevesi and Vallone faded.
The weekend before the Sept. 11
election, the polls had Mr. Ferrer in
first, right at the magic 40% threshold. Because the vote was canceled
because of the terrorist attacks, no
one knows what the result would
have been, but it is reasonable to believe Mr. Ferrer would have won
outright rather than lose to Mr.
Green in the rescheduled primary.
This scenario essentially repeated itself in 2005. Another four-way
contest: City Council Speaker Gifford Miller, regarded as a rising star
when the campaign began; Manhattan Borough President Virginia
Fields, the only African-American
in the race; an up-and-coming congressman named Anthony Weiner,
and a return appearance by Mr. Ferrer. Mr. Miller faded badly. Ms.
Fields never got out of the midteens, and Mr. Ferrer came so close
to 40% that Mr. Weiner decided not
to force a runoff.
Of course, this year could be different. Yet the 2013 race offers so
many parallels to every multiplecandidate primary since 1989. So
expect a decisive change in the polls
in August, as voters focus on the
race, and for the lagging candidates
to be abandoned by supporters who
want their vote to count. When the
calendar turns to September, it will
be a two-person race. As in 2001,
though, it isn’t clear in June who
those two candidates will be.
Bringing clients to the next level
Industries served:
Financial Services . Manufacturing & Distribution . Technology
. Retail . Construction . Architecture & Engineering
Real Estate . Healthcare . Transportation & Shipping
488 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10022
50 Jericho Quadrangle, Jericho, NY 11753
www.grassicpas.com
June 24, 2013 | Crain’s New York Business | 11
http://www.mogil.com
http://www.mogil.com
http://www.crainsnewyork.com
http://www.grassicpas.com
http://www.grassicpas.com
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Crains New York - June 24, 2013
Crains New York - June 24, 2013
IN THE BOROUGHS
IN THE MARKETS
THE INSIDER
SMALL BUSINESS
BUSINESS PEOPLE
OPINION
ALAIR TOWNSEND
GREG DAVID
REAL ESTATE DEALS
REPORT: 50 MOST POWERFUL WOMEN IN NEW YORK
CLASSIFIEDS
DIGITAL NY
NEW YORK, NEW YORK
SOURCE LUNCH
OUT AND ABOUT
SNAPS
Crains New York - June 24, 2013
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130812
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130729
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130722
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130715
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130708
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130624
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130617
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130610
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130603
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130527
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130520
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130513
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130506
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130429
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130422
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130415
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130408
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130401
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130325
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130318
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130311
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130304
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130225
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130218
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130211
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130204
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130128
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130121
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130114
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20130107
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20121224
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20121217
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20121210
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20121203
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20121203_v2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20121126
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20121119
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20121112
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20121105
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20121029
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20121022
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20121015
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20121008
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20121001
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120924
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120917
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120910_v2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120910
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120827
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120820
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120813
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120806
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120806_v2
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120730
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120723
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120716
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120709
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120625
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120618
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120611
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120604
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120528
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120521
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/20120514
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/crainsnewyork/nxtd
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com