H2Tech Market Data 2023 - 11

The world is engaged in an energy transition. Many
nations around the world have set ambitious net-zero
emissions goals, as well as enacted new regulations and
initiatives to meet those targets. Undoubtedly, H2
will
play a major role in global decarbonization activities. It is
well-suited to provide clean energy to the transportation,
industry, power and buildings, and processing sectors.
According to bp's Energy Outlook 2022, global H2
demand is forecast to expand exponentially to 2050. The
report details two paths for H2
adoption: an accelerated
path and a net-zero path. An accelerated path forecasts
H2
adoption to increase four-fold by 2050, reaching nearly
300 MMtpy by 2050. The net-zero path forecasts H2
adoption to increase seven-fold, reaching approximately
450 MMtpy within the same timeframe (FIG. 1). Although
the growth in H2
(due primarily to the long lead times for H2
200
demand is modest over the next decade
projects to
come online at scale), demand significantly accelerates in
the 2030s and 2040s. According to the report, falling H2
production costs and tightening emissions policies allow
low-carbon H2
to compete against incumbent fuels.
The largest increase in H2
portation sector. The adoption of low-carbon H2
usage is within the transin
the
transport sector will help decarbonize long-distance
transportation. This includes the use of H2
in heavy-duty
road vehicles, aviation and marine vessels. For example,
the International Council on Clean Transportation forecasts
that one-third of all flights could run off liquid green
H2
by 2050.
The use of H2
for ammonia production will be another
area of significant growth. According to industry reports,
the green ammonia market is forecast to significantly
increase from less than $20 MM in 2021 to more than $5
B by 2030. Billions of dollars are being invested in new
green and blue ammonia production capacity. This ammonia
will not only be used to produce fertilizers but can also
help provide fuels to vehicles and the maritime sector.
Capacity investments. However, to produce the needed
H2
but
to satisfy future demand, an immense amount of capital
investments are needed. These investments will not
only include pathways for producing low-carbon H2
FIG. 2. Global low-carbon H2
demand by country, 2022-2050. Source: Wood Mackenzie.
11
MARKET DATA 2023 | H2-Tech.com
H2 INITIATIVES AND INVESTMENTS GLOBALLY
100
Accelerated
Net Zero
400
300
Accelerated
500
Other
Power
Net Zero
Transport (hydrogenderived
fuels)
Transport (direct use)
Buildings
Industry
Feedstock
2019
2030
FIG. 1. H2 demand by sector to 2050. Source: bp's Energy Outlook 2022.
2050
Mt
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H2Tech Market Data 2023

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