H2Tech Market Data 2023 - 5

drives the cost of production, carbon prices of $50/t-$100/t
will be sufficient for clean H2
to be applied cost-effectively.
The global green ammonia market is projected to grow
at a CAGR of 90.2% to reach more than $5.4 B by 2030.
Current investment trends indicate that the expansion of
H2
infrastructure will significantly impact long-term investments
in green ammonia. Although the initial investments
in this sector were severely impacted by COVID-19, the
post-pandemic recovery has been promising. The market
growth for green ammonia is driven by the demand for
long-term renewable energy storage while the high initial
capital expenditure in infrastructure will continue to be
the main growth restraint. A typical ammonia plant has a
lifespan of 15 yr-20 yr, while the average capital expenditure
associated with a greenfield project ranges between
$1,000/t-2000/t of ammonia produced. Green ammonia
production cost is 50% higher than natural gas-based
ammonia and, in some parts of the world where coal-based
operations still exist, this cost gap is further widened.
Current project data indicates that future investments will
focus on large-scale production to combat cost-inefficiency.
In addition, since ammonia is the highest-density
carrier of H2
, it is one of the most fitting fuels to decarbonize
marine transport. According to International Maritime
Organization (IMO) research, ammonia may replace traditional
maritime fuel by up to 25% by 2050.
Mobility applications and H2-based fuels. Accounting
for nearly 19% of global emissions, the mobility sector will
be the largest growing application in H2
demand, reaching
nearly 290 MMtpy in 2050. Long-distance transportation is
one of the most challenging market segments to decarbonize-it
is responsible for about 15% of total global emissions.
Fuels based on H2
ane, e-kerosene or liquid H2
FIG. 2. H2 demand by production pathway. Source: IEA.
(e.g., ammonia, methanol, e-meth)
are more promising scalable
alternatives to deep decarbonization of these sectors
beyond biofuels, where feedstock availability is an evolving
challenge. By 2050, the use of H2
in decarbonizing the
heavy-duty transportation sector will be more prominent
in marine transport (as ammonia, methanol and synthetic
diesel) and aviation (as synthetic jet fuel) (FIG. 3).
H2
-based fuels will account for 75%-80% of H2
consumed
FIG. 3. Demand for H2
-based fuels. Source: bp's Energy Outlook, 2022.
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MARKET DATA 2023 | H2-Tech.com
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H2Tech Market Data 2023

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