H2Tech Market Data 2023 - 7

further reduce the cost of green H2
H2 will account for more than 55% of low-carbon H2
and more than 65% by 2050, with the rest being blue H2
a small amount of clean H2
tion and bioenergy combined with CCS (BECCS).
Despite the global policy focus on green H2
and consequently, green
by 2030
and
produced from biomass gasifica,
several
nations and coalitions [including the European Union
(EU)] are recognizing blue H2
and are investing in blue H2
as the transitional solution
projects to serve as near-term
solutions while green H2 becomes cost-competitive and/or
reaches scale. As such, the blue H2
segment is projected
to witness a higher growth rate between 2020 and 2025.
Blue H2
for 85% of global H2
global blue H2
market revenues projected to increase from $1.02 B in 2021
to $3.43 B in 2030.
Green H2 forecast. The green H2
market was valued at
$444 MM in 2021 and is forecast to grow at 58% CAGR to
$4.37 B by 2026. The low-carbon H2
market is poised to
quadruple during 2022-2023, with the electrolyzer market
as the big contributor. The global electrolyzer market
alone is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 6.4% and by more
than $87 MM during 2021-2025 and is projected to reach
$271.7 MM by 2026. The high CAGR is attributable to rising
demand from industrial sectors and market growth recovering
to pre-pandemic levels.
Electrolyzer sales in 2022-2023 are expected to be
between 1.8 GW and 2.5 GW (gigawatts), which is about
four times that in 2021 (458 MW). Planned project pipelines
in more than 30 countries indicate global electrolyzer
capacity to exceed 17 GW by 2025, with nearly 50% of the
planned expansions using renewable energy.
Although electrolyzer sales are forecast to quadruple
during 2022-2023 over those in 2021-2022, this progress
may fall short of what is needed for net-zero emissions by
2050. For green H2
to substitute for blue H2
towards net-zero,
wind and solar capacity will need to increase by 850 GW
annually in 2030-2040. While technology innovation and
supply chain optimization can result in lower overall capital
expenditures, the cost of renewable energy is the largest
FIG. 5. Cost of low-carbon H2
Source: World Energy Council.
via electrolysis (using renewable energy), and the cost of H2
from natural gas with CCUS.
developments are projected to double and account
capacity within the next decade. The
market is estimated to grow at 14.8%, with
H2 highlights in the medium term. The following are
highlights of the global H2
market in the medium term.
H2 hubs are key to the buildout of the H2
economy.
Recent announcements place 22 major projects of ~1 GW
component driving cost for electrolyzers, accounting for
45%-75% of production costs.
With declining costs for solar photovoltaics and wind
generation, building electrolyzers alongside solar arrays
and wind farms may be a low-cost supply option for H2
,
even including transmission and distribution costs
for
transporting it from remote locations to end users. Patagonia,
New Zealand, Northern Africa, the Middle East, Mongolia,
Australia and parts of India, China and the U.S. are
locations with promising potential for following this model.
or greater at various locations around the world, and 34
H2
valleys or H2 hubs in various stages of development
worldwide-more than 20 are in Europe, with others in
Australia, China, Japan, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, South
Africa, Oman, Chile and the U.S. Several large electrolyzer
projects will commence and/or reach completion by 2024.
Some of these include Enapter's German plant that will
produce 100,000 AEM electrolyzers; Belgium's Hyport
project; thyssenkrupp's 88-MW plant for Hydro-Québec,
Canada; McPhy's 100-MW GreenH2Atlantic electrolyzer
project in Sines, Portugal; and a 2-GW electrolysis plant
at NEOM, Saudi Arabia.
Applications driving market demand. In 2023, heavy
industries such as steel, ammonia, methanol, chemicals
and refining will dominate clean H2
demand. H2
demand in
7
MARKET DATA 2023 | H2-Tech.com
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H2Tech Market Data 2023

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