H2Tech Market Data 2023 - 8

transportation will develop significantly as underpinned by
37 industry partnerships and $4.6 B worth of deals made
between 2020 and 2021. Partnerships and investments
will focus on building a value chain for fuel cell electric
vehicles (FCEVs), storage and H2
fueling infrastructure.
The drive towards zero-emissions aviation is expected to
bring in investment for the development of projects such
as Hyport (zero-carbon H2
chain at airports) and research
and development (R&D) for projects such as Hypoint (aircooled
fuel cell systems for aircraft).
Active projects. Gulf Energy Information's Global Energy
Information (GEI) database is tracking nearly 460 low-carbon
H2
facilities that are either operating or under construction,
and nearly 900 projects that are planned/proposed.
There is evidence that many other projects that are in early
development have not been announced publicly. These
include large-scale projects, R&D and demonstration projects.
The total associated clean H2
investment through 2030
is estimated to be nearly $500 B-this includes $130 B associated
with announced projects, $120 B in direct investment
for government targets that exceed announced projects,
and $250 B of implied investments from orginal equipment
manufacturers (OEMs) and suppliers to support publicly
announced projects. Green ammonia announcements and
investments are expected to increase in 2023, as well.
Policies and subsidies. These will play a pivotal role in
scaling up the H2
economy and make it cost-competitive.
Current estimates place green H2 at $3/kg-$6/kg relative
to blue H2 at $1.50/kg-$2.50/kg. However, based on capital
expenditure cuts for electrolyzers and policies for scaling
up the H2
economy, green H2 could become cost-competitive
in some regions by 2030. National and corporate
net-zero goals will create cleaner H2
demand as new projects
will be built to indicate compliance with emissions
reduction targets. For example, new policies are being
enacted in eastern China's Shanghai province to accelerate
the development of fuel cell vehicles.
Investor interest will drive H2
companies to go public
by 2024. These companies include Italian electrolysis
equipment manufacturer Industrie De Nora SpA, H2
-based
synthetic fuel maker eCombustible Energy and thyssenkrupp
Nucera.
REGIONAL FORECAST
The Asia-Pacific region had the largest growth in H2
in 2020, accounting for 40.2% of total market growth in
that year. South America and the Middle East represent
significant growth markets, with CAGRs increasing by 9.5%
and 7.8%, respectively. These regions will be followed by
Africa and Asia, where the markets are expected to register
CAGRs of 6.1% and 5.3%, respectively.
Europe. Europe accounts for 58% of the global green H2
market. Besides expanding manufacturing and H2
generation
capacity, the EU is investing steadily in the creation of
H2
hubs and infrastructure for the deployment of H2
technologies.
The EU's ambitious target for 6 GW of electrolysis
capacity to produce 1 MMtpy of H2
use and double its
by 2024 will be met with
the release of funding from national subsidy programs. The
EU has also proposed to quadruple H2
target for domestic H2
production to replace the region's
reliance on 25 Bm3y-50 Bm3y of Russian natural gas with a
complete switch from gray H2
lead to 5.5 MMtpy of H2
tion in fossil fuel consumption of 30% by 2030.
North America. The region will be the dominant producer
of blue H2
, as U.S. tax credits for CCS effectively curtail the
cost of blue H2 to $1.26/kg. The U.S may also emerge as the
second-largest electrolyzer market. New projects are being
earmarked consequent to the H2
funding coming from the
Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, although construction
may be delayed as funds will be distributed across
2022-2027. Methanol and ammonia production are the
fastest growing sectors, with U.S. and Canada production
projected to grow significantly during this period.
At the time of this publication, the GEI database was
tracking more than 260 H2 projects in the U.S. of which 93
are already in the planning stage and 53 of them are dedicated
to blue and green H2
. The investment, planning and
proposal level activities in several states have significantly
ramped up since the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs
Act appropriated $8 B for the development of a minimum
of four regional clean H2
to green H2. The proposal will
production capacity and a reduchost
these hubs, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
may announce a funding opportunity by October 2022 and
select projects by May 2023. The regions competing to host
clean H2
hubs are expected to exemplify diversity in geography,
feedstock and end-use. Based on publicly available
information and announcements, there are 16 public-private,
4 private and 2 public prospective contenders for the
four H2
focus on green renewable energy-based H2
to target blue H2
of Nebraska's hub targeting turquoise H2
hubs to be built. Fifteen of these proposed hubs will
. Ten hubs plan
production with CCUS, with the exception
(recovering CO2
as a solid carbon by-product). Statutory requirements will
direct at least two hubs to be geographically advantaged
in terms of natural gas reserves and the DOE might fund
at least one out of the five hubs targeting utilization of
nuclear feedstock. Companies and partnerships hopeful of
building these hubs are developing partnerships around
resource endowments and potential end-use applications.
Canada's blue and green H2
than a third of the total H2
projects account for more
projects under planning, construction
or proposed stages. According to the Ministry of
Energy and Natural Resources, Quebec, Canada's share of
operational clean projects is expected to grow significantly
with the proposed Hydro-Quebec project which is slated
to be operational by the end of 2023. The proposed plans
by the Canadian government project H2
to deliver above
30% of Canada's energy by 2050, which is reflected in the
aggressive policies and rollout of ambitious projects such
as the Edmonton hub and the transition accelerator.
Asia-Pacific. The Asia-Pacific region is showing fast growth
in the green H2
market. The region's H2
generation market is
projected to account for $93.5 MM by 2025, growing at
a CAGR of 10% though the forecast period. Asia's market
growth can be attributed to the expansion of fuel cell-based
heavy-duty mobility and the build-out of H2
filling stations
and associated infrastructure, as well as building large infrastructures
for green H2
storage.
The Australian government's support for the H2
hubs. As several regions vie to
industry
is worth AUD $2.8 B at present as the country will continue
to lead clean H2
initiatives with more than 100 active
H2 projects. Over the long term, Australia has 69 GW of
8
MARKET DATA 2023 | H2-Tech.com
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H2Tech Market Data 2023

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