HP March 2022 eBook—Energy Transition - 23

J. KRIMMEL, Pinnacle, Houston, Texas
Business Trends
The economics of reliability: An interim report
on the global refining industry
What is reliability? Most people think reliability is simply
a measure of failure, or lack of failure. If something runs for a
longer period without failing, then it is more reliable than something
that runs for less time. However, reliability is a measure of
how often something performs when you want it to.
The basis for the author's company's annual and interim
quarterly reports are to explore the connection between reliability
and economics so that we can understand how these
key components of modern society intertwine. In doing so, we
begin to see some striking trends and key indicators of opportunity.
The goal of these reports is to challenge key industries in
ways never seen before.
Most of the world's industrial facilities buy and sell commodities.
Therefore, they have little impact on the price they pay for
their feedstocks or the price they receive for their products. The
nature of every commodity is that producers will fill the market
with enough product until the margins-or profits-for producing
that product decrease to a level that no one will produce
more. Inevitably, the balance of supply and demand will separate
organizations that are very good at running their facilities
from those that are not. One of the biggest differences between
these two groups is reliability.
Whether discussing jet transportation, power generation,
water processing and treatment, chemicals, mining, oil and gas
production, refining, automotive manufacturing or agriculture,
reliability can mean the difference between excellence and mediocrity,
and even profitability vs. bankruptcy.
The author's company's analysts estimate operators of complex
facilities around the world spend more than $500 B/yr on
reliability. The author's goal is to view several of these segments
in detail and better characterize the role reliability plays in the
broader economy.
For decades, lean manufacturing has driven companies and
operators to improve runtimes, lower costs and minimize risk
for their facilities. While this push has affected multiple sectors,
no area has produced as much public data as the refining sector,
especially in the U.S. The U.S. Energy Information Administration
(EIA) has collected and reported refining data for decades
and, when combined with international reports from the Organization
of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and
the International Energy Agency (IEA), among others, the level
of information is unparalleled to other reporting sectors.
Refining reliability overview: Crack spreads as health
indicators. A refiner's financial performance is largely driven
by two variables: the price of raw feedstock (e.g., crude oil) and
the price of finished products (e.g., gasoline, diesel and jet fuel).
As a result, crack spreads-the difference in price between refined
products and chosen inputs-are the most useful indicators
of the health of the refining sector.
Crack spreads do not account for the cost of running the
plant. Crack spreads ignore costs for items such as the energy to
heat and process the feedstock, the people to operate the plant
and all repair, maintenance and ongoing reliability work.
If we are mostly interested in reliability, then why do we care
about crack spreads? More than 80% of the costs for a refinery are
its feedstock. Crack spreads help us understand what is left over
when we remove a refiner's single largest cost from its theoretical
revenue. This leftover amount is what the refiner uses to cover its
remaining costs, with ideally some profit remaining at the end.
As crack spreads widen, the refiner has more capital available to
invest in its operation or return to its owners. As crack spreads
narrow, refiners have less flexibility and must make difficult decisions
about how to deploy their limited capital. Crack spreads
inform about the resources available to invest in best-in-class reliability
programs, which is the primary area of interest.
Refining financial landscape. One measure of crack spreads
is shown in FIG. 1. The blue line shows the spot price for Brent-
the international benchmark for light, sweet crude oil. The green
lines show the crack spread between reformulated blendstock
for oxygenate blending (RBOB)-the primary component of
gasoline-and Brent. The solid green line shows the monthly
average crack spread. The dashed green line shows the crack
spread's trailing 1-yr average.
FIG. 1. shows the volatility through which refiners have
learned to manage their business. Since the beginning of 2006,
the smallest monthly average crack spread was $0.01/gal, while
the largest spread was $1.32/gal. In this 16-yr analysis, the crack
spread has averaged $0.40/gal. In comparison, the 2020 yearto-date
average is $0.30/gal, a 25% decline from the historical
norm. If we use consumer price index data to account for the
time value of money, the average crack spread from 2006 to the
present increased to $0.46/gal. In constant dollar terms, the
2020 year-to-date spread is then at a 35% discount to the historical
average, which explains a large fraction of the prevailing
distress across the global refining sector.
Interesting patterns are apparent in this dataset. Starting
around 2010, aggressive development of U.S. conventional oil
and gas plays brought excess supply to the market. This supHydrocarbon
Processing | MAY 2021 | HydrocarbonProcessing.com
http://www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com

HP March 2022 eBook—Energy Transition

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of HP March 2022 eBook—Energy Transition

Contents
HP March 2022 eBook—Energy Transition - Cover1
HP March 2022 eBook—Energy Transition - Cover2
HP March 2022 eBook—Energy Transition - 3
HP March 2022 eBook—Energy Transition - Contents
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HP March 2022 eBook—Energy Transition - Cover3
HP March 2022 eBook—Energy Transition - Cover4
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https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/gulfpub/hp_200909
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/gulfpub/hp_200908
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/gulfpub/hp_200907
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/gulfpub/hp_200906
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/gulfpub/hp_200905
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/gulfpub/hp_200904
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/gulfpub/hp_200903
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/gulfpub/hp_200902
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/gulfpub/hp_200901
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com