Hydrocarbon Processing - January 2021 - 7

Editorial
Comment

LEE NICHOLS, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF/ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER
Lee.Nichols@HydrocarbonProcessing.com

Will 2021 be a rebound year?
Needless to say, 2020 was an unprecedented year. The global pandemic had,
and continues to have, detrimental effects on the global HPI. Global lockdowns and travel restrictions had severe,
negative impacts on refined fuels and petrochemical product demand. This led to
the following consequences: a significant
decline in global GDP, decreased refinery
utilization rates, shuttered refining and
petrochemical production capacity, delayed final investment decisions (FIDs)
on capital projects, deferred maintenance activity, work stoppages on capital
projects, rethinking major capital investments and a spike in personnel layoffs.
Fuel demand. In the U.S. EIA's " Short-

Term Energy Outlook " (December),
crude oil demand was forecast to average approximately 92.4 MMbpd in 2020.
This represents a decline in oil consumption of 8.8 MMbpd vs. 2019 levels.
However, with the easing of lockdowns and travel restrictions, refined
products demand has increased from the
significant decline witnessed in 2020.
The EIA forecasts that global oil demand
will increase by nearly 6 MMbpd in 2021
(FIG. 1). Although oil consumption will
not reach the levels seen in 2019, an
increase in consumption rates is a welcome outlook.

Petrochemical. The petrochemical sector has also been significantly affected by
the COVID-19 pandemic.
Travel restrictions and lockdowns
have led to a significant drop in global
GDP. According to the " World Economic Outlook " from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2020, global GPD was projected to have decreased
by 4.4% in 2020.
The IMF predicts that global GPD
will expand by 5.2% in 2021. Increases in
GDP tend to lead to increases in petrochemical demand. For example, polyethylene (PE) is linked directly to GDP. A
slowdown in global economies equates to
a slowdown in petrochemical consumption, especially for PE; however, the easing of restrictions and lockdowns-along
with the distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine-should lead to an increase in petrochemical consumption.
Looking ahead to 2021. As we begin

a new year, we hope the worst is behind
us and that the industry can focus on
supplying refined fuels and petrochemical products to an ever-changing market.
Despite the challenges the HPI has faced
over the past year, its resilience is a testament to the hard-working nature of its
people and the necessity of its products
to the global market.

110

Forecast

100
95
90

Implied stock build
Implied stock draw

World supply
World demand

85
0

80
75

-5

70
2015-Q1

2016-Q1

2017-Q1

Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2020

2018-Q1

2019-Q1

2020-Q1

FIG. 1. World oil production and consumption forecast. Source: U.S. EIA.

2021-Q1

Stock change and balance, MMbpd

Supply and demand, MMbpd

105

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

26 Sustainability.

Many companies are optimizing
operations for greater safety, reliability,
efficiency and environmental and
social awareness. This month's Special
Focus section details major trends in
sustainability initiatives globally, as
well as technologies to help increase
sustainable operations.

41 Optimization.

The desalter must operate with
maximum efficiency. This article provides
a case study on how implementing
total opening non-linear control is
enabling desalters at Nayara Energy
Ltd.'s Vadinar refinery to operate at
maximum efficiency.

53 Heat Transfer.

This article examines
how a high-emissivity coating can
stop oxidation and scale growth of
radiant tubes and increase conductive
heat transfer to process fluids.

Process Controls,
Instrumentation and
65
Automation.

A pervasive sensing
approach is being embraced as
companies deploy wider IIoT solutions
within their digital transformation
efforts. This article provides seven
practical examples on how it is
optimizing operations and safety in
refineries and petrochemical plants.

and Reliability.
69 Maintenance

Many refineries face periods of severe
corrosion and fouling in their crude unit
distillation overhead systems. Applying
a collection of new tools enables
additional visibility, faster response and
more informed decisions regarding
which corrective actions to take for
greatest effect. As illustrated in this
work, several refiners are applying one
or more of these techniques for positive
impact on their bottom line, whilst
achieving safer, more reliable operations.
Hydrocarbon Processing | JANUARY 2021 7

Hydrocarbon Processing - January 2021

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