Hydrocarbon Processing - April 2021 - 12

MIKE RHODES, MANAGING EDITOR
Mike.Rhodes@HydrocarbonProcessing.com

Industry Metrics

Global refining margins, 2020-2021*
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5

Selected world oil prices, U.S. $/bbl

Brent dated vs. sour grades
(Urals and Dubai) spread, 2020-2021*
Cracking spread, U.S. $/bbl

APRIL 2021 | HydrocarbonProcessing.com

2022-Q1

Cracking spread, U.S. $/bbl

Feb.-21

Jan.-21

Dec.-20

Nov.-20

Oct.-20

Sept.-20

Aug.-20

July-20

Feb.-21

Jan.-21

Dec.-20

Nov.-20

Feb.-21

Jan.-21

Dec.-20

Nov.-20

Oct.-20

Sept.-20

Aug.-20

July-20

June-20

May-20

Feb.-21

Jan.-21

Dec.-20

Nov.-20

Oct.-20

Sept.-20

Aug.-20

July-20

June-20

May-20

10
0

-10

Feb.-21

Gasoil
Fuel oil

Jan.-21

Dec.-20

Oct.-20

Sept.-20

Aug.-20

July-20

June-20

May-20

Nov.-20

Prem. gasoline
Jet/kero

-20
-30
April-20

-4
2021-Q1

20

Feb.-20

-2

Stock change and balance, MMbpd

0

2020-Q1

0

April-20

Feb.-21

Mar.-21

Jan.-21

Dec.-20

Nov.-20

Oct.-20

Sept.-20

Aug.-20

July-20

June-20

May-20

April-20

Mar.-20

Feb.-20
Supply and demand, MMbpd

6

Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2021

12

8

2

2019-Q1

10

Singapore cracking spread vs. Dubai, 2020-2021*

4

2018-Q1

Gasoil
Fuel oil

-10

World liquid fuel supply and demand, MMbpd
Forecast

Prem. gasoline
Jet/kero

Mar.-20

0

-20

20

Feb.-20

Light sweet/medium sour
crude spread, U.S.$/bbl

20

2017-Q1

April-20

Rotterdam cracking spread vs. Brent, 2020-2021*

Dubai
Urals
Mars

World supply
World demand

Diesel
Fuel oil

30

60

Implied stock build
Implied stock draw

Mar.-20

Cracking spread, U.S. $/bbl

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
2019
2020
2021

2016-Q1

Prem. gasoline
Jet/kero

Feb.-20

Source: DOE

110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70

June-20

U.S. Gulf cracking spread vs. WTI, 2020-2021*
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20

Brent Blend
W. Texas Inter.
Dubai Fateh

40

U.S. EU 16
Selected Asia
Oct.-20

Production equals U.S. marketed production, wet gas. Source: EIA.

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

May-20

70
60
50

Sept.-20

J J A S OND J F MAM J J A S OND J F MAM J J A S OND J F
2018
2019
2020
2021

2
1
0

Mar.-20

20
0

80

Feb.-20

Monthlyprice
price(Henry
(HenryHub)
Hub)
Monthly
12-monthprice
priceavg.
avg.
12-month
Production

Aug.-20

3

40

90

July-20

4

60

June-20

5

May-20

80

Global refining utilization rates, 2020-2021*
100

April-20

6

Mar.-20

100

Utilization rates, %

7

April-20

U.S. gas production (Bft3d) and prices (US$/Mft3)

Mar.-20

Feb.-20

An expanded version of Industry Metrics can be found
online at HydrocarbonProcessing.com.
120

WTI, U.S. Gulf
Brent, Rotterdam
Oman, Singapore

Margins, U.S.$/bbl

U.S. refinery margins extended their upward trend and showed the largest
gains relative to the other regions due to a rise in refinery outages as extreme
cold temperatures caused partial and complete refinery shutdowns. Refinery
margins in Europe lost ground with negative performance registered in the
naphtha, jet/kero and high-sulfur fuel oil segments. Asian product markets
strengthened slightly, reinforced by product supply disruptions caused by
unexpected refinery outages within and outside the region.

* Material published permission of the OPEC Secretariat; copyright 2021;
all rights reserved; OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, March 2021.
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Hydrocarbon Processing - April 2021

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