IEEE - Aerospace and Electronic Systems - August 2023 - 4

Feature Article:
DOI. No. 10.1109/MAES.2023.3276347
Airbus A32x Versus Boeing 737 Safety Occurrences
Graham Wild , Australian Defence Force Academy, University of New South
Wales, Canberra, ACT 2612, Australia
INTRODUCTION
In terms of domestic and international travel, air transport
globally is slowly recovering post COVID-19. Traffic in 2022
was 68.5% of the revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs)
reported in 2019, and up 64.4% compared to 2021 [1].This
suggests that it will take up to half a decade for the airline
industry to fully recover, a similar time scale to the recovery
after the September 11 terrorist attacks, and much longer than
any intervening disruptions [2]. The future growth of the
industry also needs to contend with net zero targets, for which
the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has set a
timeframe of 2050 [3]. This puts significant pressure on the
airline industry which from 2000 to 2019 collectively averaged
a profit margin of1.03%, while the Standard and Poor's
(S&P) 500 companies averaged 8.4% [4].
Despite consistent exponential traffic growth and significant
financial pressures, the airline industry has an excellent
safety record, and is second only to the Japanese Shinkansen
(bullet train) in transport safety. The number of accidents per
departure for passenger operations has reduced exponentially
since 1945 [5], and for 2012 to 2020 the number ofaccidents
has held constant at an average of 9.5 per year [6]. For this
very reason the events of2018 and 2019 involving the Boeing
737-MAX were considered out of character for the industry.
These two events were the fatal accidents which killed 346
people [7]; specifically, the Lion Air accident on 29 October
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions
expressed in this article, Airbus A32x vs Boeing 737 Safety
Occurrence, are solely those ofthe author(s) and do not necessarily
reflect the views ofthe editors, the editorial board, or the
publisher. The editors and the publisher disclaim any responsibility
or liabilityfor errors, inaccuracies, omissions, or controversies
that may befound in the article. The publication ofthis
article does not constitute an endorsement ofits contents.
Author's current address: Graham Wild is with the
Australian Defence Force Academy, University of New
South Wales, Canberra, ACT 2612, Australia (e-mail:
g.wild@adfa.edu.au).
Manuscript received 4 February 2022, revised 14
November 2022; accepted 5 May 2023, and ready for
publication 22 May 2023.
Review handled by Peter Willett.
0885-8985/23/$26.00 ß 2023 Crown Copyright
4
2018, and the Ethiopian Airlines accident on 10 March 2019
[8], [9], [10]. Such events can be referred to as " black swans "
[11], defined as " surprising extreme event(s) relative to the
present knowledge " ; however, in light of all the evidence,
there are those that would not use such a label for the Boeing
737MAX accidents [12].
Previous research looking at human factors related accidents
considered the effect of manufacturer [13].The study
noted human factors related accidents in Boeing and Airbus
aircraft had occurred significantly less than expected relative
to the number of operational aircraft. Another relevant study
compared the safety performance of Boeing and Airbus
between 1990 to 1998 [14]. The study showed that in a direct
comparison, correcting for fleet size, the probability of an
accident occurring was greater forBoeingthanfor Airbus.A
related study looked at accidents only involving avionic systems
[15]. This noted that while the Boeing 737 wasmore frequently
associated with these accidents, most of these were
still attributed to human factors, highlighting the critical role
ofthe end user.
The aim of this research is to examine the International
Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) safety occurrence data
from 2008 to 2019, comparing the Boeing 737 and Airbus
A32x families ofaircraft. The underlying research question is:
" Are there any statistically significant differences in the safety
occurrences of the core narrow-body single-aisle aircraft of
Boeing and Airbus? " To achieve this goal, a briefbackground
will provide details of the families of aircraft, followed by
details ofthe methodology. The data will be presented in four
parts. The first three will look at aspects of1) all safety occurrences
(accidents and incidents), 2) all accidents, and 3) fatal
accidents. It should be noted that each consecutive set is a subset
of the proceeding set. The fourth aspect will compare
annual fatal and hull loss accidents per million departures.
BACKGROUND
BOEING 737
The Boeing 737 family has a long history, beginning in
1964 [16]. The first generation, including the 737-100 and
737-200, began commercial operations in 1967. The basic
Boeing 737 is illustrated in Figure 1. The second
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AUGUST 2023
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IEEE - Aerospace and Electronic Systems - August 2023

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