IEEE - Aerospace and Electronic Systems - February 2022 - 20

Comparison of Atmospheric Mass Density Models Using a New Data Source: COSMIC Satellite Ephemerides
Table 4.
Statistics of 3-D Distance Errors of OP for Forty Days
(on Average of Samples) During 2014-2015 (Unit: m)
Mean
value
No-Drag 179.653
MSISE90 45.035
MSISE00 45.897
JB2008
48.943
DTM2013 46.400
Proposed 45.107
STD
value
RMS
value
70.171 192.552
29.843
28.478
29.463
32.791
28.430
53.819
53.826
56.936
56.580
53.129
highest. On Day 21, the daily Ap index is 11, higher than
the maximum Ap index on any of the first 8 days. Day 30
with a daily Ap index of 6 is actually similar to the index
of the first 8 days, however, this comes off a relatively
high daily index of18 on the previous day-Day 29.
Therefore, as expected the daily F10.7 flux plays a significant
role in predicting the effect ofatmospheric drag (as
evidenced by the discrepancy in the no-drag case), but the
other space weather factors also play a role in explaining
large discrepancies. A combination of relatively high
F10.7, relatively large number of C-class flares (in other
words increased X-ray flux), and relatively high activity in
the Earth's magnetosphere/ionosphere (evidenced through
the Ap index) seem to come together to create the largest
peaks in 3-D errors. There are other days in which these
factors individually are higher but not in combination.
The large variation in 3-D error for the final 20 days are
probably also the result of swings in the values of F10.7,
background X-ray flux, and the Ap index. The Ap index in
particular has large variation in the daily and maximum
recorded indices, especially for the last 10 days. The first 20
days in comparison are much lower in absolute value generally,
and with no massive variation from one day to the next.
As the days in the chosen 10-day windows are not always
consecutive, it is important to keep in mind that a peak in the
error from one day to the next may in fact be much more

IEEE - Aerospace and Electronic Systems - February 2022

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