Aerospace and Electronic Systems - May 2019 - 39
Monedero et al.
Table 2.
- After 6 months (November 2016), obtain the real
results registered by the
Airbus DS Company
after the executions of
these tests.
Prediction Results of the Tests
TESTS
Test
analyzed
Prediction
Actuality
Abortive
incidence
Nonabortive
incidences
Abortive
incidence
Nonabortive
incidences
1
10%
3.60%
NO
NO
2
100%
14.80%
YES
NO
3
3.40%
3.10%
NO
4
0%
8%
NO
5
5.10%
40%
NO
6
25%
100%
NO
7
25%
100%
NO
8
2.10%
35.60%
NO
9
12.50%
0%
YES
10
23.90%
0%
YES
11
100%
3.80%
YES
12
100%
0%
YES
13
0%
8.50%
NO
14
2.40%
4.20%
NO
15
0%
0%
NO
16
5.10%
8.50%
NO
17
86.30%
2.90%
YES
18
86.30%
0%
NO
19
0%
91.30%
NO
20
25%
14%
NO
ACCURACY
carried out by the Airbus DS Company. Specifically,
the results of these predictions were obtained after the
realization of a battery of tests, and they are described
in this section.
To achieve the results of the tests, a six-month time
period was needed. Thus, the procedure followed in those
six months consisted of the following steps:
- Making predictions of incidences with the framework to a set of test executions previously carried
out by the Airbus DS Company. Specifically, the
selected sample set had a total of 20 executions
selected randomly by the company in one of the aircraft in a test. The extraction of the sample data was
dated May 2016.
MAY 2019
- Comparison and evaluation of the results to evaluate the precision of the
framework.
The results of the tests after
carrying out these steps are
NO
shown in Table 2. In the column
Prediction, the percentages of
NO
predictions made by the frameYES
work are shown. In the column
NO
Actuality, the actual results
of these tests are shown in relaNO
tion to whether an incidence
NO
occurred (YES) or not (NO).
NO
Prediction rates above 50%
probability were considered
NO
YES, while those below 50%
NO
were considered NO.
NO
Thus, in the table are
marked
in yellow, those predicNO
tions that did not coincide with
YES
what happened after the tests by
NO
Airbus DS are shown. The rest
of the predictions (in white)
NO
coincided with what actually
NO
occurred after the tests.
YES
Once the results were quantified,
it is possible to observe
NO
that a prediction accuracy of
86%
87.5% was obtained (35 correct
predictions out of 40). Thus,
the results showed a high
degree of accuracy in the prediction of incidences.
In addition, to avoid those incidences in the future, the
Airbus DS Company studied and executed the recommendations generated by the framework.
NO
CONCLUSION
The failures (known in the terminology of the Airbus DS
Company as "incidences") in the test process of an aircraft
create delays and costs for the company. Our team from the
Electronic Technology Department (Spain) worked with the
Airbus DS Company and developed a framework for incidence prediction from a data mining process. Specifically,
the framework is designed for predicting the incidences generated in the ground testing process of the A400M aircraft.
IEEE A&E SYSTEMS MAGAZINE
39
Aerospace and Electronic Systems - May 2019
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Aerospace and Electronic Systems - May 2019
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