IEEE Computational Intelligence Magazine - May 2018 - 48
TablE 3 Size of software developer community,
from IDC Study.
rolE
icT-skilleD
workers
sofTware
DeveloPers
EsTImaTEd #
For 2014
Professional sofTware
DeveloPers
11,005,000
icT oPeraTions anD ManageMenT skilleD workers
18,008,900
ToTal
29,013,900
Professional sofTware
DeveloPers
11,005,000
hoBBYisT sofTware
DeveloPers
7,534,500
ToTal
18,539,500
before being able to be offered to the business/home user in an
easy to use form.
The scientific community recognizes that GP evolves functions, and saying that it evolves programs, could be viewed in a
different way by the non-GP community, which means that
their expectations are not met when they start using GP as a
tool to integrate with their own systems.
Hyper-heuristic research has tended to focus on the main
elements of the framework (see Fig. 1). There has been some
work in trying to unify the various elements, but nothing is
readily available at the moment that can be used off-the-shelf.
There are tools available, such as TSPLIB2, MATLAB3 and
CPLEX4 but these are either expensive, more suited to expert
users and not necessarily EC related.
We know that large scale software development is difficult.
Rosenberg [131] tells the story of Mitch Kapor who developed
Lotus 1-2-3 and the popular personal information manager,
Agenda. Kapor decided to develop a more up to date, extensible, fully functioning and featured personal information manager. What started as a grand vision became a tale of managing
a large software development team with all the issues and problems that this brings. The resultant product, Chandler, is freely
available but it never had the impact that was hoped for. The
book [131] provides a stark reference to the difficulties of large
scale software development, even by people who have developed highly successful products before.
Brooks [132], in his famous work-The Mythical Man-
Month-noted that software development is difficult and
when large software development projects do run into problems, adding additional manpower cannot save it. Indeed, it will
make it even later.
There are many examples of software development projects
failing. A small sample (there are numerous) are highlighted here:
1) "The U.S. Air Force has decided to scrap a major ERP
(enterprise resource planning) software project after spending
US$1 billion, concluding that finishing it would cost far
too much more money for too little gain."5
2) "In 2003, Levi Strauss, was a global corporation, with
operations in more than 110 countries but with an IT
system that was an antiquated, 'Balkanised' mix of incompatible country-specific systems. So its bosses decided to
migrate to a single SAP system and hired a team of fancy
consultants (from Deloitte) to lead the effort. 'The risks
seemed small,' wrote the researchers. 'The proposed budget was less than $5 m.' But very quickly things fell apart.
One major customer, Walmart, required that the system
interface with its supply chain management system, creating additional work. During the switchover to the new
system, Levi Strauss was unable to fulfil orders and had to
close its three US distribution centres for a week. In
2008, the company took a $192.5 m charge against earnings to compensate for the botched project and fired its
chief information officer."6
3) "We examined 1,471 projects, comparing their budgets
and estimated performance benefits with the actual costs
and results. They ran the gamut from enterprise resource
planning to management information and customer relationship management systems. Most, like the Levi Strauss
project, incurred high expenses-the average cost was
$167 million, the largest $33 billion-and many were
expected to take several years. Our sample drew heavily
on public agencies (92%) and U.S.-based projects (83%),
but we found little difference between them and projects
at the government agencies, private companies, and European organizations that made up the rest of our sample."7
There appears to be a need for more support for large scale
software development projects. There are enough personnel
working as software developers (see Table 38) that any automation should be welcomed by the industry. Perhaps not by those
whose jobs are at risk, but certainly by those who employ the
developers. Of course, this is no different to many other industries, where jobs have been replaced by automation, but it does
seem ironic that those responsible for automating so many jobs
are now at risk themselves.
Even if we were able to get technologies such as GP and
hyper-heuristics to the stage where they could be used by
experienced software developers, it is not clear how these technologies could be packaged to make them readily available to
business/home users, who are not experienced developers.
It is unrealistic, at least in the foreseeable future, to expect an
evolutionary process to evolve a complete software product and
perhaps this will never be an aim, or an expectation. Perhaps a
more immediate aim would be to enable software developers to
specify the requirements and interface as part of the software
5
https://www.cio.com/article/2390341/, last accessed 04 Feb 2018.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/apr/21/fred-brooks-complex-softwareprojects, last accessed 04 Feb 2018.
7
https://hbr.org/2011/09/why-your-it-project-may-be-riskier-than-you-think, last
accessed 04 Feb 2018.
8
https://www.infoq.com/news/2014/01/IDC-software-developers, last accessed 04 Feb
2018.
6
2
https://www.iwr.uni-heidelberg.de/groups/comopt/software/TSPLIB95/, last accessed
04 Feb 2018.
https://www.mathworks.com/, last accessed 04 Feb 2018.
4
https://www.ibm.com/analytics/data-science/prescriptive-analytics/cplex-optimizer, last
accessed 04 Feb 2018.
3
48
IEEE ComputatIonal IntEllIgEnCE magazInE | may 2018
https://www.cio.com/article/2390341/
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/apr/21/fred-brooks-complex-software-projects
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/apr/21/fred-brooks-complex-software-projects
https://www.iwr.uni-heidelberg.de/groups/comopt/software/TSPLIB95/
http://hbr.org/2011/09/why-your-it-project-may-be-riskier-than-you-think
https://www.mathworks.com/
https://www.ibm.com/analytics/data-science/prescriptive-analytics/cplex-optimizer
https://www.infoq.com/news/2014/01/IDC-software-developers
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