IEEE Computational Intelligence Magazine - November 2020 - 45

1)	a sequence input layer which accepts the number of
inputs equal to the number of features. Note that there
are three features for training CC-IMF2 in both cases: the
signals CC-IMF2, T-IMF2 and H-IMF2 at time t - 1. The
target for the network in this case is the value of the signal CC-IMF2 at time t. Similarly, there are three features
for training CC-IMF3 in both cases: the signals CC-IMF3,
T-IMF3 and H-IMF3 at time t - 1. The target for the network is then the value of CC-IMF3 at time t.
2)	an LSTM layer with 200 units.
3)	a fully connected layer with 200 units.
4)	a dropout layer with the factor 0.6.

TR

c2

r1

:

r2

...
...

3,000
2,500
2

4

6

10

8

ct+1

rt-1

rt+1 ... rn
Features at Time t

FIGURE 13 The value of the signal CC-IMF1 at time t (c t) is predicted
using its value at time t - 1 (c t - 1) and the value of the signal TR at
time t - 1 (rt - 1) as features.

12

14

16

3,500
3,000
2,500

18

RMSE = 225.5508

500

ct
rt

Forecast

3,500

0

To Be Predicted
at Time t +1
... cn

ct-1

Features at Time t -1

No. of Cases

No. of Cases

c1

CC-IMF1 :

Forecast

4,000

2,000

To Be Predicted at
Time t

0

2

4

6

10

8

12

14

16

18

12

14

16

18

12

14

16

18

14

16

18

RMSE = 115.4116

200
Error

Error

100
0

-500

0
-100
-200

0

2

4

6

10

8

12

14

16

0

18

2

4

6

Day

Day

(a)

(b)

Forecast

Forecast
400
No. of Cases

No. of Cases

500
0
-500
0

2

4

6

10

8

12

14

16

200
0
-200
-400

18

0

2

4

RMSE = 130.5671

6

10

8

RMSE = 118.2228
200

200
Error

100
Error

10

8

0
-100
-200
0

2

4

6

10

8

0
-200
-400

12

14

16

18

0

2

4

6

10

8

Day

Day

(c)

(d)
Observed

12

Forecast

FIGURE 14 Predicted value and root mean square error (RMSE) of the number of COVID-19 cases forecast corresponding to each IMF of Maharashtra CC signal conducted on the test set. (a) CC; (b) CC-IMF1; (c) CC-IMF2; and (d) CC-IMF3.

NOVEMBER 2020 | IEEE COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE MAGAZINE

45



IEEE Computational Intelligence Magazine - November 2020

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